Donald Clarke’s Predictions for Today’s Nominations

The nominations for the 2026 Oscars will, when they arrive at lunchtime on Thursday, certainly have an Irish presence.

It involves no ‍spoiler ⁢too reveal that⁣ Jessie Buckley, searing in ⁢ Hamnet, is runaway favorite for best ⁤actress.⁣ Paul Mescal, her costar, will probably sneak into the supporting-actor race. Two Irish titles, ⁣Retirement Plan⁢ and Éiru, are on‍ the shortlist of 15, announced before Christmas, for best⁤ animated short ⁣film.

Andrew Scott ⁤ has an outside chance‍ of a supporting-actor nod⁣ for his turn as richard Rodgers in the Irish coproduction Blue Moon. Richard Baneham, from Tallaght, will surely be again up in the visual-effects category for his work on the Avatar sequence. ⁤The producers Ed Guiney and⁢ Andrew ⁢Lowe, of Whatever the total, Sinners and One Battle After Another ⁢will surely be at the top of this ‍year’s nomination table. Frankenstein and Hamnet look likely to come in second and third, with ⁣about⁣ 12 for the horror epic and 10 for the ⁢bereavement saga.

It is also worth pondering how many films not in English⁢ will make it into the ⁢best-picture category. As in 2024, three such titles⁤ could land, so confirming a shift towards ⁢a more⁢ internationally inclined‍ electorate.⁣

The Oscars take place in Hollywood on Sunday, March 15th. Here are 14 intriguing categories out of the⁢ full 24. All entries are listed in descending order of likely inclusion.

Donald Clarke’s academy Award nomination predictions

Best picture

• One Battle ⁣after another
• Sinners
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• Frankenstein
• Sentimental Value
• The Secret Agent
• It Was Just an Accident
• Train Dreams
• Bugonia

The top⁢ six seem certain.waiting just outside the 10 are three commercial hits: wicked: For Good, weapons

You could reasonably argue⁣ that only Anderson and ‍Coogler are safe. Don’t rule out Josh Safdie ‍for the much-admired Marty Supreme. Panahi,Iranian winner of the Palme d’Or,gets the ⁤nod for It Was Just an accident, as the directors’ branch of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has always been more open⁣ to ⁣colleagues from outside the United States.⁢

Best‍ actress

• Jessie ‍Buckley, ⁢Hamnet
• Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
• Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
• Emma Stone, Bugonia
• Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

Four nailed down. Then it’s a toss-up between the veteran hudson and the newcomer Chase Infiniti for One Battle After Another.Buckley can⁢ probably reserve a place on the mantelpiece already, but byrne, a popular actor, has won with ⁢a clutter of critics’ groups. Then again, this will probably be the only nomination for her‍ film.

Best actor

• Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
• Leonardo‍ DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
• Wagner maura, The Secret Agent
• Michael B Jordan, Sinners
• Ethan⁢ Hawke, Blue Moon

Maura missed with the Bafta longlist, but his win at the Golden Globes confirms growing strength. Chalamet has been working the publicity circuit hard and will probably end up in a head to head with DiCaprio.This⁤ could well be the five. Hawke was liked in Blue Moon, and he does now count as a veteran.

Best supporting actress

• Teyana⁤ Tayl
  • Bugonia
  • Frankenstein

  One Battle After another,as a boss front-runner,will compete in every big category,but Hamnet has an undeniably “writerly” quality. If anything breaks this five it might be a rogue non-English-language title such as Park Chan-wook’s No ‍Other Choice.

  Best original screenplay

  

  • Sinners
  • Sentimental Value
  • Marty Supreme
  • It Was Just an Accident
  • Sorry, Baby

  Maybe a sentimental pick here for Eva Victor’s ingenious, moving Sorry, Baby. Kleber Mendonça Filho’s The Secret⁢ Agent, a best-picture probable, is just as likely.

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