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- Reporters, Mark Poyning & Marco Cinba
- Reporter, BBC News
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7 hours ago
As Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE) recorded record rainfall on the 16th (local time), incorrect speculations about cloud seeds (artificial rainfall) are being raised.
We looked at how unusual the rainfall that hit Dubai this time was and what caused it.
How unusual was the rainfall?
Dubai is a region located on the coast of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and usually has a very dry climate. The average annual rainfall here is less than 100 mm, but extreme downpours occur occasionally.
Al-In, a city about 100km away from Dubai, recorded about 256mm of rainfall over the past 24 hours.
The so-called ‘separation’ low pressure, which draws in hot and humid air and blocks the flow of wind, is considered the main cause.
Professor Martin Armbaum, a meteorologist at the University of Reading in the UK who studies rainfall patterns in the Arabian Gulf region, said, “This region usually does not rain for long periods of time, but heavy rain falls irregularly. Even so, this rainfall is a very rare case.”
What are the impacts of climate change?
It is not yet possible to say exactly what effect climate change had on this Dubai flood. Quantifying this requires a full scientific analysis of natural and human factors, which could take months.
However, this record rainfall is consistent with the trend of climate change.
Simply put, warmer air can hold about 7% more moisture per degree Celsius, which can lead to increased rainfall.
Professor Richard Allen, who teaches climate science at the University of Reading, said: “While this rainfall is unusual, it is consistent with global warming. “As the climate gets warmer, there is more moisture, which can lead to storms and more intense downpours.”
Global warming could increase annual rainfall by up to about 30% in most parts of the UAE by the end of this century, according to a recent study.
“If people continue to burn fossil fuels such as oil, natural gas and coal, the climate will become warmer, rainfall will increase and the number of casualties from floods will increase,” said Friederike Otto, associate professor of climate science at Imperial College, UK. “It will continue,” he pointed out.
image copyrightReuters
Photo caption: Citizens of Dubai walk down a flooded street after heavy rain.
What are ‘cloud seeds’ and what are their effects?
‘Cloud seeding’, or artificial rainfall, refers to a method of manipulating already manipulating clouds to make more rain fall.
When aircraft drop small particles (such as silver iodide) into clouds, water vapor can more easily condense and fall as rain.
This is a technology that has been used for decades, and in recent years, the UAE has used artificial rainfall technology to solve water shortage problems.
Meanwhile, hours after the flooding occurred, some social media users began criticizing recent artificial rainfall operations, saying that the extreme weather changes had occurred.
According to a previous report by Bloomberg, it is true that artificial rain planes were deployed on the 14th and 15th, but they were not deployed on the 16th when the flood occurred.
The BBC was unable to independently verify the exact dates of the rain-making operation, but experts said the rain-making process would have had a minimal impact on the storm at best and said the focus on the rain-making work was “misleading”. did.
Associate Professor Otto explained, “Even if artificial rainfall stimulated the clouds surrounding Dubai and promoted rain, it is likely that climate change would have caused the atmosphere to hold more moisture that could form clouds in the first place.”
Artificial rainfall is generally implemented when conditions such as wind, humidity, and dust are not sufficient to produce rain. But last week, weather experts warned of a high risk of flooding across the Arabian Gulf.
“When such intense and large-scale weather changes are predicted, no artificial rainfall operations are implemented,” said Diana Francis, chair of the Department of Environment and Geophysics at Khalifa University in the UAE. Because there is no need to promote strong weather changes on a regional scale. “Artificial rainfall work is expensive,” he explained.
BBC meteorologist Matt Taylor also pointed out that this unusual weather event had already been predicted. “Prior to this flood, computer modeling analysis (which does not take into account the potential effects of artificial rainfall) predicted that more than a year’s worth of rain would fall in this area within 24 hours.”
“The impact (of this extreme weather event) was far greater than what could have been caused by artificial rainfall alone, with widespread flooding from Bahrain to Oman.”
Meanwhile, artificial rainfall work in the UAE is under the jurisdiction of the National Center for Meteorology (NCM), a government agency.
How well prepared is the UAE for extreme rainfall?
To prevent heavy rains from turning into deadly floods, a solid preparedness system must be in place to cope with sudden increases in rainfall.
Dubai is a highly urbanized area with little green space to absorb moisture, and its drainage systems are inadequate to withstand the extremely high rainfall.
Professor Francis said,[비가 더 자주, 강하게 내리는] In this new reality [적응]“We need strategies and adaptation measures to do this,” he advised.
“For example, we can adapt city and facility infrastructure accordingly and build reservoirs to store water that falls in the spring and reuse it later.”
In January this year, the UAE’s Roads and Transport Authority established a new department to help Dubai manage floods.
