Mexico Grapples with Aftermath of ‘El Mencho’s’ Death, Cartel Violence Erupts
The death of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho,” on Sunday represents one of the most significant blows against organized crime in Mexico in decades. The leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) headed one of the country’s most powerful criminal organizations, with a presence throughout much of the national territory and international reach.
For political scientist Sandra Ley, a security expert at the School of Social Sciences and Government at the Monterrey Institute of Technology, this is “the most important arrest we’ve had in decades given the size of the CJNG and its national and international scope.” However, she warns in an interview that the structural impact of the blow is limited if not accompanied by other measures.
CJNG Responds with Violence
The immediate effects were quickly felt. Roadblocks, vehicle fires, and attacks in several states reflect the CJNG’s ability to respond even without its historical leader. According to Ley, “the decapitations of cartels are usually accompanied by escalations of violence,” especially when there are no parallel actions of prevention or dismantling of protection networks.
Along the same lines, German political scientist Günther Maihold, an expert on Mexico at the Institute for Latin American Studies at the Free University of Berlin, emphasizes that El Mencho’s death does not necessarily imply the weakening of the cartel. “The capo is arrested or killed and the cartel continues to function; the business continues because the structures are not touched,” he states in an interview.
A Complete or Pyrrhic Victory for the Government?
From the government of Claudia Sheinbaum, the operation is presented as a demonstration of the state’s capacity. For security expert Javier Oliva Posada of the Faculty of Political and Social Sciences at UNAM, This proves “a structural victory for the Mexican state” and a signal that “other leaders can also be brought to justice.”
Maihold, however, calls for caution. In his view, the operation is only “the beginning of a much larger task,” and there is a risk that a media success will be celebrated without attacking the foundations of criminal power.
Fragmentation and Dispute over Territories
One of the most likely scenarios is internal fragmentation of the CJNG. Maihold describes three possible scenarios: an orderly succession, a violent internal rupture, or a territorial redistribution among rival groups. “The degree of confrontation may increase,” he warns, in a context where various criminal actors would seek to control routes, and markets.
Ley agrees that criminal competition is today “one of the most important factors in the use of violence,” which would raise the risk to the civilian population in the coming weeks.
The operation took place in a context of growing cooperation with the United States. However, Maihold doubts the impact on drug consumption north of the border. “The death of a capo will not influence consumption,” he says, adding that the real challenge remains breaking the links between organized crime, politics, and justice, a terrain where Mexico “has avoided acting decisively.”
World Cup 2026 in Jeopardy?
With an eye on the 2026 FIFA World Cup, security is once again at the center of the debate. Oliva Posada rules out, for now, a greater risk to visitors and fans and assures that “the conditions are in place to guarantee security” during the tournament.
Maihold agrees that the current violence responds to a “demonstration of force” and not a sustained strategy, although he acknowledges that the perception of insecurity still prevails among the population.
Beyond the headlines, the death of El Mencho poses a complex scenario: while it represents a symbolic and tactical victory, it could open a period of violent readjustments and more profound challenges for Mexican security policy. The structural challenge remains to dismantle the networks that sustain organized crime and not just its most visible figures.
