Europe’s long-standing reliance on the United States for its defense is facing a critical reassessment, spurred by the return of Donald Trump to the White House and a growing recognition of deeper strategic vulnerabilities. The shift is prompting a renewed push for “strategic autonomy” within the European Union, a concept that increasingly centers on bolstering internal defense capabilities and re-evaluating relationships with key regional allies, including Turkey.
The current security crisis, described as the most severe in decades, isn’t solely a consequence of recent geopolitical events. According to analysis from Istanbul, the roots lie in a decades-long pattern of “outsourcing defense” – a strategic decision that has left Europe exposed as the reliability of U.S. Security commitments comes into question. This vulnerability was starkly highlighted by recent, unpredictable shifts in U.S. Policy towards Ukraine, including a temporary halt to military equipment shipments and adjustments to sanctions against Russia, even if those decisions were later partially reversed.
The core concern isn’t necessarily a complete withdrawal of U.S. Support, but rather the increasing unpredictability of American foreign policy under President Trump. As Zaki Laïdi wrote in July 2025, the question facing European leaders is no longer whether the U.S. Will disengage, but whether it will consistently act as a dependable ally. This uncertainty is fueling a debate about Europe’s ability to ensure its own security, independent of Washington.
The pursuit of strategic autonomy isn’t simply about increasing defense spending, although that is a component. It requires a fundamental re-evaluation of Europe’s security architecture and a willingness to forge new partnerships. Abdullah Gül argues that re-engagement with NATO allies like Turkey is crucial. Despite existing tensions and political complexities, Turkey remains a significant military power within the alliance and its inclusion is seen as vital for a more robust European defense framework.
This call for re-engagement with Turkey comes at a complex juncture. While the specifics of the relationship aren’t detailed in the available sources, the implication is that a more inclusive approach to security cooperation is necessary, even with nations that may present diplomatic challenges. The argument rests on the premise that a unified and strengthened NATO, incorporating the capabilities of all its members, is essential for deterring potential threats.
The shift towards greater European defense independence also has significant implications for the defense industry. A recent report by Oliver Wyman and the Milken Institute highlights the need for increased collaboration between European governments, industry leaders, and investors to strengthen the continent’s defense capabilities. This suggests a potential surge in investment in European defense companies and a drive to develop indigenous technologies to reduce reliance on U.S. Suppliers.
However, the path to strategic autonomy isn’t without obstacles. As noted in previous Project Syndicate commentary, European countries have historically struggled to translate pledges of increased defense spending into concrete action. A deeper issue is a reluctance to fully confront the question of whether Europe can genuinely defend itself without relying on the United States. This hesitation stems from a combination of factors, including budgetary constraints, political divisions, and a deeply ingrained habit of relying on American security guarantees.
The situation is further complicated by the broader geopolitical landscape. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has underscored the urgency of strengthening European defenses, but it has also exposed divisions within the EU regarding the appropriate response. The need for a unified and decisive approach is paramount, but achieving consensus among 27 member states remains a significant challenge.
The implications extend beyond military preparedness. A more strategically autonomous Europe could also have a significant impact on transatlantic economic relations. Reduced reliance on U.S. Defense imports could lead to shifts in trade patterns and investment flows. A more assertive European foreign policy could reshape the global balance of power.
The current moment represents a pivotal turning point for European security. The return of Donald Trump to the White House has served as a catalyst for a long-overdue reckoning with the limitations of relying on American leadership. The quest for strategic autonomy is now firmly underway, and its success will depend on Europe’s ability to overcome its internal divisions, forge new partnerships, and invest in its own defense capabilities. The re-evaluation of relationships with key allies like Turkey is a critical component of this process, signaling a willingness to embrace a more pragmatic and inclusive approach to security cooperation.
The Project Syndicate Winter Sale, offering a 40% discount on subscriptions, suggests increased interest in analysis of these evolving geopolitical dynamics. Access to commentary and archival content from sources like Project Syndicate may become increasingly valuable as Europe navigates this period of strategic realignment.
