Europe is facing a fundamental shift in its strategic environment, compelled to adapt to a world increasingly defined by great power competition, the resurgence of hard power, and a weakening of the rules-based international order. While remaining a significant economic and regulatory power, the continent is struggling to translate these assets into genuine geopolitical agency, finding itself often reacting to events shaped elsewhere.
The current international landscape, as experts note, is a departure from the conditions that underpinned the European model of soft power, cooperation, and legal constraint. The post-Cold War assumptions of a stable, rules-based system are eroding, replaced by a more brutal reality where coercion and military force are once again central to statecraft. This transformation is particularly challenging as the United States, historically the defender of the liberal order, now increasingly prioritizes its own interests, sometimes in ways that diverge from European norms.
A New Strategic Environment
Four key trends are shaping this new reality. First, international relations are becoming “brutalized,” with major powers – including the US, Russia, and China – demonstrating a willingness to disregard or reinterpret international rules. Second, competition for resources, encompassing energy, minerals, and strategic technologies, is intensifying. Third, the rise of multipolarity sees an increasing number of actors seeking to expand their influence and build alternative structures outside of Western dominance. Finally, technology has emerged as a critical instrument of power, impacting both economic and military capabilities.
At the core of this shift is a renewed emphasis on violence, both economic and military. States are prepared to use force to secure their interests, often disregarding international institutions and established laws. Rearmament programs are expanding, while arms control agreements are expiring, leading to a hardening of international relations. Europe, must find ways to safeguard its interests in a world where power politics and military strength often dictate outcomes.
Looking ahead to , several potential flashpoints remain. The Middle East continues to be volatile, tensions in the Arctic are rising, and the Western Hemisphere has re-emerged as a zone of strategic competition, exemplified by the United States’ assertive approach in Latin America – a revived interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine, dubbed the “Donroe Doctrine,” aimed at excluding external powers like China and Russia. China is expected to continue its efforts to expand its influence in the South China Sea and the Indo-Pacific region, while Russia is likely to persist with its war in Ukraine.
For Europe, Russia remains the most acute threat. Moscow’s objectives remain unchanged, We see preparing for a prolonged conflict, and its efforts to undermine European stability are evident through sabotage and disinformation campaigns. Even a potential freeze in the conflict in Ukraine would not diminish Russia’s interest in revising the European security order and asserting what it considers its rightful place.
A Costly Catch-Up
Adapting to this new environment requires Europe to become more sovereign and resilient – in technology, industry, and military capabilities – as well as in the defense of its democratic values. However, this undertaking is costly, politically challenging, and clashes with the preferences of many Europeans who favor a more cooperative and rules-based international order.
Military capabilities are being rebuilt across the continent, albeit unevenly. Some governments question the necessity of rearmament, while others lack the economic capacity to pursue it at scale. There is also a recognition that other instruments of power, such as technological innovation, need strengthening, but creating the necessary conditions for this remains a challenge. A pragmatic approach to partnerships, building alliances with states that share fundamental values – international law, sovereignty, free trade, and territorial integrity – is also seen as crucial. Countries like Japan and Australia are increasingly viewed as attractive partners in this regard.
European frameworks – the EU and NATO – need to become more agile and flexible. The increasing reliance on smaller, ad-hoc coalitions, such as those formed to support Ukraine, is a step in the right direction. However, implementation remains slow, compounded by a weakening of traditional European leadership. The United States is providing less certainty, the United Kingdom is still defining its role outside the EU, and France faces domestic constraints that limit its capacity to act decisively.
Attention is increasingly turning to Germany, which, among Europe’s major powers, remains comparatively stable politically and economically. While facing pressure from the far-right, the German government is in a stronger position than its counterparts in London or Paris. If its rearmament efforts are successful, Germany is poised to become the continent’s strongest conventional military power, leading some partners, particularly in the Baltic and Scandinavian regions, to look to Berlin for leadership.
This raises a critical dilemma. Can Germany help Europe form a cohesive power bloc that asserts its interests against Russia, China, and the United States? Or will it lead hesitantly, divide the continent, or pursue a unilateral course? Germany’s willingness to lead may increase, driven by its own exposure to the consequences of the changing international order. However, a strong Germany leading Europe would be a departure from historical precedent.
Concerns exist in some capitals about Germany becoming a hegemon that shapes European politics, economy, and defense according to its own rules. France and Poland, in particular, appear wary of a Germany-dominated European defense structure. Any German leadership must be participatory and inclusive, integrating partners, sharing risks, and operating firmly within established European frameworks. If Berlin can navigate these challenges, it could enable a stronger and more capable Europe.
As Claudia Major, senior vice president for transatlantic security of the German Marshall Fund, and Jana Puglierin, senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, suggest, the question of German leadership in may hinge on Berlin’s ability to serve as an enabler of a more unified and empowered Europe.
