Europe faces a hardening geopolitical landscape, demanding a fundamental shift in its approach to security, according to a new analysis by the Institute for International Relations (IFRI), the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), Istituto Affari Internazionali, and the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM). The report, released on , argues that decades of strategic complacency have left the continent vulnerable and ill-prepared for the challenges posed by a resurgent Russia and a more assertive global order.
The analysis challenges long-held assumptions that underpinned European security in the post-Cold War era – namely, reliance on the United States for defense, the belief that Russia could be integrated through trade, and the notion that defense could be marginalized in favor of economic priorities. These assumptions, the report states, have proven fragile in the face of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and a broader shift towards a more Hobbesian international system characterized by power politics and coercion.
Russia’s war against Ukraine is identified as a pivotal moment, exposing the consequences of underinvestment in defense and highlighting the need for a more robust and unified European security posture. The conflict has extended beyond the battlefield, encompassing sabotage, cyber-attacks, disinformation campaigns, and political interference across Europe, representing a sustained threat to the continent’s interests.
The report stresses that a stronger Europe is not about seeking confrontation, but about acting with clarity and responsibility in the face of Russian attempts to establish an adversarial relationship with Europe and NATO. European leaders must, the analysis contends, focus on changing the strategic conditions through credible deterrence and defense, demonstrating that coercion will fail, particularly in Ukraine. While acknowledging the possibility of a different relationship with Russia in the future, the report emphasizes that any such shift must be predicated on demonstrable changes in Russian behavior.
A key argument is that Europe can no longer outsource its security. This responsibility extends beyond the European Union, requiring a genuinely European effort that includes both EU and non-EU states, such as the United Kingdom and Norway. The goal is to build a Europe capable of acting militarily to secure its interests, deter aggression, and contribute meaningfully within NATO and alongside the United States.
The report outlines five critical tests for European leaders: sustaining Ukraine’s ability to defend itself and negotiate from a position of strength; deterring Russian sabotage and subversion within Europe; reforming defense structures to generate and deploy military capability at scale; maintaining public support for defense spending amid economic pressures; and building decision-making systems that enable swift and collective action.
A central challenge identified is the structural disconnect between Europe’s growing external threats and its fragmented political, fiscal, and industrial systems. Economic security, energy security, technology, trade, and defense are increasingly intertwined, yet remain governed by separate institutions and slow processes. This hinders Europe’s ability to respond effectively to evolving challenges.
The report highlights the need for a shift in procurement practices, advocating for a move away from expensive, limited-quantity systems towards the rapid delivery of scalable, attritable capabilities. It also emphasizes the importance of investing in European defense industries and fostering innovation to reduce reliance on external suppliers. According to the report, Europe must prioritize outputs over inputs, aligning financial, regulatory, and institutional systems to support sustained industrial investment.
Maintaining public support for increased defense spending is also identified as crucial. Leaders must connect security spending to tangible outcomes that benefit citizens and build trust through effective delivery and transparency. A redefined social contract on security, the report argues, is essential for sustaining long-term political and fiscal commitment.
the analysis calls for a streamlining of Europe’s security decision-making processes, advocating for faster and more decisive action. This includes empowering smaller groupings of capable states to take the lead in specific situations and accelerating the mobilization of diplomatic, economic, and military tools in response to crises.
The report concludes that success will be measured by outcomes – a secure Ukraine, deterred Russian aggression, a robust European defense capability, sustained public support, and the ability to act swiftly and collectively. Europe’s influence in the world will depend on its ability to take responsibility for its own security and act decisively when its interests are threatened. Failure to do so, the report warns, will leave Europe vulnerable and subject to the influence of others.
Tone Langengen, a senior policy advisor at the Toby Blair Institute and a contributor to the report, has previously highlighted the importance of practical policy solutions to address climate change, while also acknowledging the growing backlash against net-zero policies across Europe, as noted in a November 2023 report by CNN. Her expertise in net-zero policy and strategy informs the report’s emphasis on the interconnectedness of security and sustainability.
