Flat buying sentiment again ‘shrinking’
The national flat sales supply and demand index fell to 70.2
Seoul fell to 63.1
The lowest since statistics were collected
#. Park (48), who had not been able to buy a house during the rapid increase in housing prices in recent years and only watched the rise in prices, made up his mind to buy a house in Seoul when house prices fell until last year. But recently, that idea has disappeared. This is because many believe that house prices will fall further, and the interest burden has also increased as interest rates have risen dramatically. Mr. said Park, “I think it would be better to estimate the time to buy a house by watching the market situation.”
Although the government is pouring various measures to make a soft landing in the real estate market, the sentiment of buying apartments is hardly revived. This is because concerns that house prices will fall further are spreading, and interest rates, which are an important factor in buying a house, are still rising dramatically.
According to the Korea Real Estate Agency on the 30th, from the fourth week of December (26th), the national apartment sales supply and demand index recorded 70.2. It was 0.8 points lower than the previous week (71). This is the lowest level since the Real Estate Agency started collecting related statistics in July 2012. This is the lowest ever for 5 consecutive weeks.
The trading supply and demand index is an index of the proportion of supply and demand by analyzing the survey of member brokerages and the number of Internet listings by the Real Estate Agency. On a scale of 100, nearly 0 means supply exceeds demand, and nearly 200 means demand exceeds supply. This means that, in the national apartment market, the proportion of landlords who want to sell apartments is greater than the proportion of end users who want to buy apartments.
The Seoul apartment sales demand and supply index recorded 63.1, down 0.9 points from the previous week (64). This is the lowest in 10 years and 5 months since the first week of July 2012 (58.3). The Seoul apartment sales supply and demand index has been below 100 for more than a year since the third week of November last year (99.6).
Buying sentiment has weakened in most areas of Seoul. The index of the northwest region, which includes Eunpyeong, Mapo, and Seodaemun-gu, recorded 56.3, the lowest among the five districts in Seoul. It fell 1.7 points from 58 the previous week. The southwest region, where Yeongdeungpo and Yangcheon-gu are located, dropped from 61.3 to 60.1. The Gangbuk area dropped from 61.6 to 61, and the city area from 64.6 to 62.4. The Gangnam area (66.3→65.1) and the southeast area (72.8→71.7) also decreased. On the other hand, the northeast region, where Nowon, Dobong, and Gangbuk-gu are located, rebounded from 62.2 to 62.3.
Buying sentiment has bottomed out in most areas as house prices continue to fall. According to the actual transaction price disclosure system of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, 84㎡ for ‘Bukhansan Prugio’ in Nokbeon-dong, Eunpyeong-gu was traded at 870 million won last month, down 450 million won from this year’s highest price of He won 1.275 billion. The 59㎡ dedicated to the ‘Maporaemian Prugio Complex 3’ in Ahyeon-dong, Mapo-gu was also traded at 1.13 billion won last month, down 370 million won from the previous transaction of 1.5 billion won (April).
A certified brokerage in Ahyeon-dong, Mapo-gu said, “The actual buyers are not showing much interest in the emergency sale.”
The high interest rate is also one of the factors that increase the burden on end users to buy a house. According to the Bank of Korea, the current base rate is 3.25% per annum. The benchmark interest rate, which was 1% per annum in November last year, rose by 2.25 percentage points through eight interest rate hikes. Mortgage interest rates are also on the rise as the benchmark interest rate increases. According to the financial sector, as of the middle of this month, the upper end of the floating interest rate of the four major commercial banks, including KB Kookmin, Shinhan, Hana, and Woori, is approaching 7.668% per annum.
A certified brokerage official in Nokbeon-dong, Eunpyeong-gu said, “Most end users need a loan when buying a house, but the interest rate is high and the interest burden has increased.”
Meanwhile, according to KB Real Estate, the buying advantage index in the Seoul housing market recorded 20.5 in December. Although it rebounded slightly from 19.9 last month, it is still at a low level. The closer this index is to 0, the more sellers there are. The national purchasing power index is 17.5, and the six metropolitan cities are 10.8, getting closer and closer to zero.
Lee Sang-ryeol, Hankyung.com reporter yisr0203@hankyung.com
