Reporter Dai Yuxiang/Taipei Report
▲ The share price of TSMC (2330) fell below the 500 yuan mark. (Picture/Data Photo)
Recently, the share price of TSMC (2330), the “protecting the country”, fell below the 500 yuan mark, from a high of 688 yuan to a low of 485 yuan on the 23rd, a 29% drop, which made millions of small shareholders tremble. Few investors are asking, when is a good time to enter the market? To this,Senior analyst Cai Mingzhang revealed that TSMC’s key “floor price” may be lower than the prefix 4！
Cai Mingzhang, director of Wanbao Investment Consulting, said that TSMC is the most optimistic in 2022. It is estimated that the net profit per share will exceed 32 yuan. If it is realized, it will hit a record high and the growth rate will be close to 40%. Now the market is rumored that the foundry will be affected by the reduction of consumer electronics orders, but it is a mature process. TSMC’s advanced process has a high proportion, and its customers are relatively stable, so there is no such problem.
Many people will ask, why does TSMC’s share price keep falling, even to the beginning of 4? Cai Mingzhang believes that this is due to the impact of the overall environment, and the valuation of the foundry has been revised down. Based on the current price of TSMC of about 490 yuan, the price-earnings ratio has dropped to 15 times. Last year, because of the overall good market, TSMC’s price-earnings ratio reached 23 times, but the current environment is not good, so the price-earnings ratio has been revised down. The stock price fell, which is TSMC’s “non-war crime”.
Cai Mingzhang said that after this logic is confirmed, TSMC’s investment strategy is actually very simple. The long cycle of the overall semiconductor foundry started in 2016. At that time, TSMC’s stock price was only a little over 100 yuan, and the EPS price-to-earnings ratio was about 12. Now the price-earnings ratio of 15 times is actually a reasonable price. Investors can start buying, although it is not necessarily the lowest point, so investors can start to buy regularly from now on.When TSMC’s P/E ratio reaches 12 times, it is likely to be the “floor area”assuming that this year’s net profit per share is 32 yuan, and the price-earnings ratio is 12 to 13 times, the stock price will fall around 400 yuan, but whether it will really fall 12 times, this is difficult to predict, no one can say for sure, so It’s a good idea to buy slowly in batches.
As for when Taiwan stocks will stop falling? Cai Mingzhang said that in the past, the Fed will terminate the interest rate hike cycle and U.S. stocks will enter new bulls, but this time is different. Although the Fed has not ended the interest rate hike cycle, as long as inflation does not reach a new high, U.S. stocks will continue to rise. will start to rebound. Therefore, the key is to look at the CPI data to be released in mid-July. If it is higher than 8.6%, Taiwan stocks may bottom out at 14,732 points. Otherwise, if it is lower than 8.6%, it will lead to a big rebound. Therefore, it is recommended that investors reduce their shareholding ratio to less than 30% and retain sufficient cash.
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The content is for reference only. Investors should carefully assess risks when making decisions and be responsible for the investment results.
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