Experts Predict Donald Trump Will Not Win Nobel Peace Prize

Donald Trump is not expected to win the Nobel Peace Prize this year, according to experts, despite being nominated once again and launching a peace council intended to help rebuild Gaza. Haakon Gjerløw, director at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (Prio), told the Swedish news agency TT that a series of recent foreign policy actions makes an award unlikely.

International Friction Makes Nobel Prize Unlikely for Trump

Gjerløw pointed to specific international friction points involving the United States under Trump. In an interview with TT, Gjerløw stated that after a year featuring a military intervention in Venezuela, a conflict involving Iran, pressure on Greenland, and multiple trade wars, it is very difficult to foresee the Nobel Committee awarding the prize to Donald Trump.

Trump himself acknowledged the committee’s stance, stating that they have a reputation for not giving the award to figures like him. That assessment contrasts with Trump’s own statements in the Oval Office, where he maintained that he has brokered peace in eight wars and saved millions of lives.

Alternative Candidates Proposed by Peace Organizations

Several alternative candidates were listed, including the Sudanese aid organization Emergency Response Rooms (ERR), Save the Children, and Ukrainian child rights activist Mykola Kuleba. Another option involves recognizing international legal cooperation through the International Criminal Court (ICC) or the International Court of Justice (ICJ), though Gjerløw noted that such a choice could prove politically sensitive given heavy U.S. criticism and sanctions.

Separately, the Swedish Peace and Arbitration Society (Svenska Freds) highlighted three distinct candidates: ICC President Tomoko Akane, the campaign to Stop Killer Robots, and activist Issa Amro alongside the Emergency Response Rooms. Svenska Freds chair Kerstin Bergeå emphasized the importance of spotlighting civil society actors operating amid severe armed conflicts in Sudan and Palestine.

Controversy Risk and Space Cooperation as a Joker Option

Gjerløw explained that the Nobel Committee must weigh the risk of whether receiving the prize might inadvertently hinder a laureate’s ongoing work rather than help it. At the same time, he noted that former committee secretary Geir Lundestad frequently argued the peace prize should occasionally be controversial to maintain its prestige, provided it does not court controversy every year.

As a neutral fallback option, Gjerløw suggested the International Space Station (ISS) as a dark horse candidate. He described an ISS prize as a way to honor cross-border scientific cooperation while gently pushing politicians to secure stronger future space regulations.

Oil and Yield Prices Rise Before Oslo Announcement

Rising benchmark yields in the United States crossing 5.3 percent and surging Brent crude oil prices reaching 105.5 dollars per barrel amid supply concerns and Gulf weather disruptions. The formal Nobel Peace Prize announcement takes place on Friday in Oslo.