The second of three pre-season Formula 1 tests concluded in Bahrain on Friday and despite sweeping regulation changes, the competitive landscape is beginning to resemble its recent past. While definitive conclusions remain elusive with a final test still to come, a familiar division appears to be forming within the grid.
The established top four – Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren, and Red Bull Racing – continue to position themselves as each other’s primary rivals. A clear gap separates them from the midfield, with a further performance deficit trailing the backmarkers. However, the precise order within these tiers remains uncertain, and teams are engaging in the traditional preseason dance of downplaying expectations.
Mercedes ended the second test with the fastest time, set by Andrea Kimi Antonelli at 1m 33.669s, and overcame some initial reliability concerns. However, George Russell characterized the week as a “reality check,” shifting focus to the perceived strength of Red Bull Racing. “They’re very much the team to beat,” Russell stated. “Red Bull are going to be ahead, so we’ve got work to do.”
Red Bull Racing, predictably, offered a contrasting assessment. Technical director Pierre Waché insisted, “We are not the benchmark for sure. We clearly see the top three teams — Ferrari, Mercedes and McLaren — are in front of us.”
Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc offered a nuanced perspective, acknowledging Red Bull’s power unit advantage while suggesting Mercedes might be concealing their full potential. “I think Red Bull have shown very impressive things power unit-wise since the start of the tests,” Leclerc said. “Mercedes are showing some very impressive things as well sometimes, but I would say they are hiding a lot more. I would expect them two especially to be a bit ahead of us… it’s Red Bull and Mercedes in front, and then us.”
McLaren, the reigning constructors’ champion utilizing the Mercedes power unit, echoed similar sentiments. A team representative noted that early indications “definitely put Ferrari and Mercedes at the top of the list in terms of those that seem to be ready from a performance point of view in particular.”
Raw lap times during testing are notoriously unreliable indicators of true performance. Variables such as time of day, fuel loads, engine modes, and tire choices significantly influence results. However, after three days of running, a rough shape is emerging that aligns with expectations.
Time by team, Bahrain days 1–3:
- 1. Mercedes: 1m 33.669s (Andrea Kimi Antonelli, day 3)
- 2. Ferrari: +0.540 (Lewis Hamilton, day 3)
- 3. McLaren: +0.880 (Oscar Piastri, day 3)
- 4. Red Bull Racing: +1.129 (Max Verstappen, day 1)
- 5. Haas: +1.725 (Oliver Bearman, day 2)
- 6. Alpine: +2.137 (Franco Colapinto, day 3)
- 7. Audi: +2.622 (Nico Hülkenberg, day 3)
- 8. Williams: +2.996 (Alex Albon, day 3)
- 9. Racing Bulls: +3.139 (Liam Lawson, day 3)
- 10. Cadillac: +3.155 (Valtteri Bottas, day 2)
- 11. Aston Martin: +4.496 (Lance Stroll, day 3)
Notably, Red Bull Racing’s fastest time was achieved on the first day of the test, when track conditions were dustiest. The precise impact of this is difficult to quantify, but it suggests the performance gap may be larger than indicated. Conversely, teams may have been running with different fuel loads or engine settings, further complicating analysis.
Long-run data offers a more reliable assessment, as teams conduct race simulations with standardized fuel levels. These results appear to support the order suggested by lap times, with Mercedes and Ferrari closely matched at the front, followed by McLaren. Red Bull Racing appeared comparable to McLaren, though a caveat exists as Isack Hadjar, not Max Verstappen, was behind the wheel during some of those runs. Verstappen and Norris also conducted long runs on Thursday that showed closer performance, with Verstappen benefitting from superior straight-line speed.
The picture remains fluid, however. Ferrari is slated to introduce a significant upgrade package at the final Bahrain test next week. This upgraded car will be the one they bring to the season-opening race in Melbourne, potentially reshaping the competitive order. Upgrades from other teams and further data collection over the next three days could also alter the landscape.
Williams demonstrated a much-needed improvement in reliability, completing 422 laps – matching McLaren and slightly exceeding Ferrari – in an effort to overcome the setbacks from missing the Barcelona test. The team also utilized its two ‘filming days’ for additional track time.
Mileage by team, Bahrain days 1–3:
- 1. McLaren: 422 laps (2283.9 kilometres)
- 2. Williams: 422 laps (2283.9 kilometres)
- 3. Ferrari: 420 laps (2273.0 kilometres)
- 4. Haas: 390 laps (2110.7 kilometres)
- 5. Audi: 353 laps (1910.4 kilometres)
- 6. Red Bull Racing: 343 laps (1856.3 kilometres)
- 7. Racing Bulls: 326 laps (1764.3 kilometres)
- 8. Cadillac: 320 laps (1731.8 kilometres)
- 9. Alpine: 307 laps (1661.5 kilometres)
- 10. Mercedes: 282 laps (1526.2 kilometres)
- 11. Aston Martin: 206 laps (1114.9 kilometres)
Cadillac, despite experiencing numerous red flags as expected for a new team, has quietly impressed observers. While still likely to be a backmarker, the team has alleviated concerns about failing to qualify for races. Team boss Graeme Lowdon described the test as “very productive,” highlighting the team’s progress in exploring the car’s behavior and accumulating valuable data.
Aston Martin, however, appears to be facing significant challenges. The team has struggled with reliability and performance, completing the fewest laps of any team and lagging significantly behind the competition. Fernando Alonso acknowledged the team’s current deficit, stating, “We need to unlock more performance… we are a little bit on the back foot.”
