Face-Off: Trump vs. Harris – A Breakdown of Their Campaign Promises
US Presidential Debate: Trump vs Harris
The first debate between Trump (Republican) and Harris (Democrat) was held in Philadelphia, 56 days before the actual election day, and received enormous attention from all over the world. This debate is an important campaign policy that affects the general economy, with various views on the matter.
Tax Collection Policies: A Key Differentiator
Although the tax collection policies of the two parties are clearly opposite to each other, they have significant implications for the US economy.
- Democrat’s Tax Policy: If Harris wins the election, corporate tax will increase from 21% to 28%, which may hinder US EPS growth but could support fund flow and continue to flow to Thai stocks.
- Republican’s Tax Policy: If Trump wins the election, corporate tax will decrease to 15%, which could lead to increased EPS growth, as seen in 2016-2017 when Trump became the President of the United States in his first term. However, this could also lead to a higher risk of trade wars.
Theme Investing and Policy Play
Theme investing often changes according to the results of poll surveys, which can impact the popular vote. Currently, Harris’ popularity poll is ahead of Trump’s at 48.4 to 47.3.
Historically, the US stock market has been volatile after the presidential debate, with the S&P 500 falling by an average of 1.5% in the 7 days following the debate.
The US 2024 elections, scheduled for November 9, require close monitoring, as the theme of policy play investment often changes based on poll results and the popular vote.