El Fasher: The Last Stronghold of the Sudanese Army

No region in Sudan has received the same amount of international attention as the city of El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, with more military pressure on it since the beginning of its siege last May by the Rapid Aid Forces.

The international community, including the United Nations, the African Union, and the United States, has called for an end to the siege, warning of a humanitarian disaster and the potential for widespread civilian casualties.

The Strategic Importance of El Fasher

El Fasher is the last stronghold of the Sudanese army and its armed movement allies in the Darfur region. The city’s fall would give the Rapid Aid Forces control over the entire region, strengthening their military and political position.

The city’s location is also crucial, with roads connecting it to seven states in Sudan, including the capital, Khartoum. It is also an important hub for trade and communication with Chad, Egypt, and Libya.

The Humanitarian Situation

Almost two million people live in Darfur, the majority of whom have been displaced due to the armed conflict that began in 2003. El Fasher is currently the headquarters for relief activities, and its fall would put hundreds of thousands of civilians at risk.

The city is also home to a number of international non-governmental and relief organizations, which would be severely impacted by a takeover by the Rapid Aid Forces.

The Potential Consequences of El Fasher’s Fall

The fall of El Fasher would be a turning point in the conflict in Sudan, leading to a new reality where the Rapid Aid Forces’ military and political position is strengthened. This would complicate the political situation inside Sudan and potentially lead to changes in internal and regional alliances.

The city’s fall could also lead to the formation of an independent administration in western Sudan, which would not achieve stability due to the long-standing conflict between the Rapid Aid Forces and the local population.

Regional and International Implications

The fall of El Fasher could lead to the rise of militias and militants in the Sahel region, with negative repercussions for internal security in countries such as Chad, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso.

The international community, particularly the United States and France, may also employ the Rapid Aid Forces and their allies in regional projects, potentially settling scores with countries that have expelled Western powers and replaced them with Russian allies.