Fentanyl Potency Drop Linked to Overdose Decline
- drug overdose deaths in recent years likely stems from a decrease in the potency of fentanyl circulating in North America, according to a new analysis.
- Researchers published their findings Thursday in the journal Science.
- "From about 1980 to 2022,the number of fatal overdoses from all drugs went up about 20-fold," said Peter Reuter,a University of Maryland drug policy researcher and co-author of...
A meaningful drop in U.S. drug overdose deaths in recent years likely stems from a decrease in the potency of fentanyl circulating in North America, according to a new analysis.
Researchers published their findings Thursday in the journal Science. They point to a possible connection between the shift in fentanyl potency and Chinese government crackdowns on the trafficking of precursor chemicals used to manufacture the opioid. The study relies on U.S. government overdose mortality figures, data from the drug Enforcement Management on fentanyl potency and seizures, and analysis of posts from drug-related forums on Reddit.
“From about 1980 to 2022,the number of fatal overdoses from all drugs went up about 20-fold,” said Peter Reuter,a University of Maryland drug policy researcher and co-author of the paper. ”And then in June,july of 2023,suddenly the curve turns down. There was clearly some systematic event that drove it down over the next two years by at least one-third.”
reuter and his colleagues found that the drop in potency coincided with a surge in online mentions of terms like “drought” and a decline in fentanyl seizures by law enforcement.
The DEA no longer regularly publishes data on drug purity and price, making current fentanyl potency challenging to track. However, the research offers new insight into the recent decrease in drug deaths, which experts have struggled to explain. Previous theories included a return to pre-pandemic conditions, the success of treatment and harm reduction policies, and the possibility that the moast vulnerable populations have already succumbed to overdose.
Researchers believe these factors alone couldn’t account for the rapid decline in overdose deaths that began in mid-2023.