Gather Swedish Info: Write, Don’t Assist
- A mother who is breastfeeding knows more about the future than snobs who work hard.
- This is the idea behind a Swedish project that has now started feeding Ukraine's defense with the world's best predictions.
- They would be 5,000 this summer, but already after a month Glimt has collected 7,700 users.
Swedish Platform Enabling Crowdsourced Predictions for Ukraine’s Defense
Table of Contents
- Swedish Platform Enabling Crowdsourced Predictions for Ukraine’s Defense
- Q&A on the Swedish Platform Enabling Crowdsourced Predictions for Ukraine’s Defense
- What is the concept behind the Swedish project Glimt?
- How does Glimt operate and contribute to Ukraine’s defense strategy?
- What is the significance of collective intelligence in Glimt’s predictive model?
- What incentives does Glimt offer for independent thinking?
- How does Glimt fit into Sweden’s broader support for ukraine?
- What are some example predictions that Glimt users have made?
- How can individuals participate in Glimt?
- Q&A on the Swedish Platform Enabling crowdsourced Predictions for Ukraine’s Defense
- What is the concept behind the Swedish project Glimt?
- How does Glimt operate and contribute to Ukraine’s defense strategy?
- What is the significance of collective intelligence in Glimt’s predictive model?
- What incentives does Glimt offer for self-reliant thinking?
- How does Glimt fit into Sweden’s broader support for Ukraine?
- What are some example predictions that Glimt users have made?
- How can individuals participate in Glimt?
Updated 10/19/2023 | Published 10/01/2023
A mother who is breastfeeding knows more about the future than snobs who work hard.
This is the idea behind a Swedish project that has now started feeding Ukraine’s defense with the world’s best predictions. The platform, running by the Total Defense Research Institute (FOI), launches a new method of leveraging collective intelligence to help Ukraine navigate the complexities of modern warfare.
They would be 5,000 this summer, but already after a month Glimt has collected 7,700 users. On the site, ordinary people make predictions about the future. These questions come directly from the Ukrainian state. Ukraine aims to use these predictions to better decision-making within their defense strategies.
People take it very seriously. There is power in it, to let people join,
Ivar Ekman, an analyst at FOI.
The platform harnesses research from the American intelligence community, indicating that groups of ordinary people predicting future events often outperform small groups of experts. The questions may range from queries like “Will Russia invade Georgia in 2025?” to more specific economic predictions, such as “What will be the value of a ruble on February 13, 2025?” Users can assess the probability of these events on a scale from 0 to 100 percent, updating their assessments as new information becomes available.
Building a Collective Intelligence Network
When the questions are closed, it becomes clear which assessors have predicted best. They earn points and rise on the site’s leaderboards. Over time, the answers come more from those who have been the most accurate in the past, sharpening the overall predictions.
Each prediction, verified by aggregated responses, goes through a rigorous validation process. The predictive outcomes become sharper as more people engage, reflecting an even more insightful consensus. This is crucial, especially in volatile regions like Ukraine, where every prediction counts against the backdrop of geopolitical instability.
Incentives for Independent Thinking
A special ‘gold glimmer’ is distributed to those who have made an individual prediction more accurately than the collective assessment. This recognition against consensus fosters unique perspectives and discipline.
There is an incentive to think for yourself. You lose if you just follow consensus and not finding your own ways to read the development, but people are pretty good at wanting to think for themselves,
Ivar Ekman
The platform draws heavily on the wisdom of the crowds. It is not looking for opinions or perceptions of what should happen, but rather what people think will happen.
Part of Sweden’s Support to Ukraine
All questions come directly from the Ukrainians. The institute emphasizes its commitment to enabling and supporting Ukraine. While they work closely with the Ukrainians, the approach respects the sensitivity of military strategies and decision-making processes.
We do what they ask us. But we can’t or shouldn’t know how they enter this in their decision apparatus later. Then we are in on stuff that is sensitive,
Ivar Ekman
renewed commitments to helping Ukraine. This platform not only provides essential data but also enhances Ukraine’s strategic decision-making processes, leveraging the collective wisdom of its citizens and beyond.
Swedes and Americans Engage
This platform is part of Sweden’s broader initiative to support Ukraine, designed to merge modern predictive analytics with ground-level human intelligence.
Glimt is positioned as a key element in Sweden’s 16th support package to Ukraine, reflecting a commitment to both technical and strategic advancements in diplomatic defense mechanisms. The platform highlights the potential for democratic engagement in international diplomacy, where ordinary citizens can influence strategic decisions.
There is something potentially democratic in letting people be involved and get an outlet for their commitment and their thoughts on how the world works. Not just with their opinions, which tends to be what is awarded on social media and in opinion polls,
Ivar Ekman
This program underscores the broader trend in predicting geopolitical events through innovative crowd-sourcing methodologies.
For those interested in participating, the site can be accessed at glowing.nu.
Q&A on the Swedish Platform Enabling Crowdsourced Predictions for Ukraine’s Defense
What is the concept behind the Swedish project Glimt?
Answer:
The Swedish project Glimt, launched by the Total Defense Research Institute (FOI), is based on the idea that collective intelligence can surpass individual expert predictions. It connects ordinary people’s predictions to feed Ukraine’s defense strategies. By harnessing the power of crowds, Glimt allows users to forecast future events, directly assisting Ukrainian decision-makers. As Ivar Ekman, an analyst at FOI, mentioned, “People take it very seriously.There is power in it, to let people join.” The project has quickly garnered over 7,700 users, demonstrating meaningful interest and engagement.
How does Glimt operate and contribute to Ukraine’s defense strategy?
Answer:
Glimt operates by allowing individuals to make predictions on future events through an online platform. These predictions are directly requested by the Ukrainian government to support their defense strategies in Ukraine. The platform uses collective forecasting, enabling users to assess the probability of specific events on a scale from 0 to 100%. As more users participate and contribute, the aggregated data forms a sharper and more accurate prediction, crucial for strategic decision-making in volatile geopolitical settings like Ukraine. Glimt functions as a significant tool for Ukraine, providing insightful data without revealing critical military strategies.
What is the significance of collective intelligence in Glimt’s predictive model?
Answer:
Collective intelligence, or the wisdom of the crowds, plays a central role in Glimt’s success. Research from the American intelligence community suggests that groups of ordinary individuals can often outperform small teams of experts when predicting future events. Glimt builds on this concept by refining predictions as more users engage,thus sharpening the accuracy of forecasts. As participants’ predictions are validated, those consistently providing accurate assessments accumulate points, rising on leaderboards and contributing more to future predictions. This model not only enhances predictive accuracy but also encourages diverse thinking through its system of rewarding individual insight.
What incentives does Glimt offer for independent thinking?
answer:
Glimt encourages independent thinking by offering a ‘gold glimmer’ reward for individuals who make more accurate predictions then the overall consensus.This recognition promotes unique perspectives and analytical discipline among users, motivating them to trust their judgment and insights rather than simply following the majority. As noted by Ivar Ekman, the incentive to think independently is crucial, as following consensus without developing personal analytical skills can lead to inaccuracies. This approach fosters a dynamic surroundings where innovative ideas are cultivated.
How does Glimt fit into Sweden’s broader support for ukraine?
Answer:
glimt is a part of Sweden’s comprehensive initiative to support Ukraine, aligning with a broader package aimed at enhancing Ukraine’s defense through technical and strategic advancements. As Ivar Ekman clarified, the platform’s integration into Sweden’s 16th support package to Ukraine exemplifies its commitment to leveraging modern predictive analytics alongside human intelligence in defense mechanisms. This not only provides Ukraine with essential data but also highlights the potential for democratic engagement in international diplomacy, where citizens can influence strategic decisions, reflecting sweden’s enduring support since Russia’s invasion.
What are some example predictions that Glimt users have made?
Answer:
Glimt users have made various predictions, ranging from geopolitical events to economic forecasts:
- Geopolitical Example: Users predicted whether Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump would have an official meeting or call before February 15, 2025, with Glimt’s consensus being 45% yes, 55% no. This turned out to be incorrect.
- Economic Example: The prediction concerning the exchange rate between the Russian ruble and the US dollar on February 13, 2025, demonstrated user engagement with 30% predicting the rate would be 85-95 rubles per dollar, with the correct answer falling within this range.
Future predictions include:
- Possible North Korean involvement in Ukrainian conflict.
- Changes in Syria’s military agreements with Russia.
- Control of Russia over the Kursk region.
- Prospects of nuclear weapons use by Russia in Ukraine.
These examples highlight how Glimt channels collective insights into actionable predictions.
How can individuals participate in Glimt?
Answer:
Interested individuals can access Glimt through its website at glowing.nu and contribute to crowdsourced predictions. Participation is free, and users engage by forecasting future events, sharing insights, and contributing to a democratic process of strategic decision-making.
The platform exemplifies how crowd-sourced intelligence can transform geopolitical forecasting, offering fresh perspectives and supporting robust strategic frameworks for defense and diplomacy. As this initiative aligns with Sweden’s renewed commitments, it continues to stand as a powerful tool for Ukraine and a model of international collaboration.
Q&A on the Swedish Platform Enabling crowdsourced Predictions for Ukraine’s Defense
What is the concept behind the Swedish project Glimt?
Answer:
The Swedish project Glimt, initiated by the Total Defense research Institute (FOI), is grounded in the philosophy that collective intelligence often surpasses individual expert predictions. this platform aggregates predictions from ordinary individuals to support Ukraine’s defense strategies, leveraging the power of crowds to forecast future events accurately.Ivar Ekman, an analyst at FOI, emphasizes the meaning of this collective engagement: “People take it very seriously. There is power in it, to let people join.” Since its inception, Glimt has quickly amassed over 7,700 users, showcasing significant public engagement and interest.
How does Glimt operate and contribute to Ukraine’s defense strategy?
Answer:
Glimt operates as an online platform where individuals can make predictions on future events.These predictions,requested directly by the ukrainian government,play a crucial role in shaping Ukraine’s defense strategies. By employing collective forecasting, users assess the probability of specific events on a scale from 0 to 100%. As participation grows, the aggregated data forms a more accurate and insightful prediction, essential for strategic decision-making in volatile geopolitical contexts like Ukraine. Glimt serves as a valuable tool for Ukrainian defense by providing insightful, data-driven predictions while maintaining operational security.
What is the significance of collective intelligence in Glimt’s predictive model?
Answer:
Collective intelligence, or the wisdom of the crowds, is a cornerstone of Glimt’s predictive model. Research from the American intelligence community suggests that groups of ordinary individuals frequently enough outperform small teams of experts in predicting future events. Glimt leverages this concept by refining predictions as more users participate, thereby enhancing the accuracy of forecasts. Participants who consistently provide accurate assessments earn points and ascend in rank on the platform’s leaderboards, contributing more to future predictions. This approach not only boosts predictive precision but also promotes diverse and innovative thinking.
What incentives does Glimt offer for self-reliant thinking?
Answer:
Glimt encourages independent thinking by offering a ‘gold glimmer’ reward to individuals whose predictions exceed the collective consensus in accuracy. This recognition fosters unique perspectives and analytical discipline among users, motivating them to trust their own judgment rather than simply aligning with the majority. Ivar Ekman notes the importance of this approach, stating, “You lose if you just follow consensus and not finding your own ways to read the growth, but people are pretty good at wanting to think for themselves.” This incentive system cultivates a dynamic habitat where new and innovative ideas can thrive.
How does Glimt fit into Sweden’s broader support for Ukraine?
Answer:
Glimt is part of Sweden’s comprehensive initiative to support Ukraine, aligning with a broader package aimed at enhancing Ukraine’s defense through technological and strategic advancements. As highlighted by Ivar Ekman, the platform’s integration into Sweden’s 16th support package demonstrates a commitment to using modern predictive analytics and human intelligence in defense mechanisms. By providing essential data and enabling democratic engagement, Glimt underscores Sweden’s ongoing support for Ukraine since Russia’s invasion, illustrating the potential for collaborative international diplomacy.
What are some example predictions that Glimt users have made?
Answer:
Glimt users have made diverse predictions, including geopolitical events and economic forecasts:
- Geopolitical Example: Users predicted whether Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump woudl have an official meeting or call before February 15, 2025. Glimt’s consensus was 45% yes, 55% no, which proved incorrect.
- Economic Example: Predictions about the exchange rate between the Russian ruble and the US dollar on February 13,2025,saw 30% of users forecasting 85-95 rubles per dollar,with the correct answer falling within this range.
Future predictions include possible North Korean military involvement in Ukraine, changes in Syria’s agreements with Russia, Russia’s control over the kursk region, and the potential use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
How can individuals participate in Glimt?
Answer:
Individuals can participate in Glimt by visiting its website at glowing.nu and contributing to crowdsourced predictions. Participation is free, allowing users to forecast future events, share insights, and engage in a democratic process of strategic decision-making. The platform exemplifies how crowd-sourced intelligence can transform geopolitical forecasting,offering fresh perspectives and supporting robust strategic frameworks for defense and diplomacy. As part of Sweden’s renewed commitments, Glimt continues to serve as a powerful tool for Ukraine and a model of international collaboration.