German officials say Chancellor Olaf Scholz plans to urge Chinese leader Xi Jinping to reduce China’s economic support for Russia and pressure Moscow to take part in peace talks on Ukraine, with the aim of resolving the conflict on terms that acceptable to Kiev conflict.
The conflict in Ukraine has entered its third year, and a negotiated end is still unlikely in the short term. Kiev has stated that it is ready to accept conditions that include the complete withdrawal of Russian troops and the provision of compensation. Moscow, on the other hand, intends to keep the large parts of Ukrainian territory currently occupied by its armed forces. Western officials believe that Russia could be preparing to launch a new attack in the late spring and summer.
A senior German official said, “We want to show China that this war is illegal and violates our core interests. China is now on the side of the aggressor, and China should actively participate in all efforts to end this war. ” “
The Russian army is currently operating in Ukraine to attack Ukraine’s defense forces However, the results achieved so far are incremental and come at a high cost in terms of manpower and material resources. German officials say reducing Chinese support could be decisive in bringing Moscow back to the negotiating table.
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Many Western politicians and analysts believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to seize more territory in Ukraine and will not negotiate before the US election in November. Some Western allies, such as Britain, are hesitant to force Ukraine to negotiate directly with Russia, fearing that Russia’s aim is still to replace the government in Kiev with a leadership that is more willing to the demands of the Kremlin.
In February, Putin told former Fox News host Tucker Carlson that the West, not Kiev, should negotiate with Moscow to end the war in Ukraine. On Friday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the draft peace agreement proposed by Russia in March 2022 should become the basis for new ceasefire talks.
But while Russia now has the upper hand, the battle lines have not changed significantly in months, and the prospects for a decisive military victory for either side anytime soon are slim. . Along with the rising costs of the war, it is likely that negotiations will be needed to end the war sooner or later.
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The West has failed in the past to win Chinese support for diplomatic solutions. While the Chinese government is not believed to be directly supplying arms to Moscow, Western officials say Chinese companies provide dual-use products, such as electronic parts and chemicals that are key components of weapons, and help Russia maintain and rebuild its military. .
Fabrice Pothier, a former senior NATO official who now advises the government in Kyiv, said that China provides financial support for Putin’s war, so gaining China’s support is essential to efforts to end the aggression.
Pothier said: “It is important that Scholz makes it clear that no neutral solution for Ukraine will work, not for the Ukrainians and even more so for Putin, who does not accept Ukraine’s sovereignty from completely
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After China sent a series of overtures to European countries that it wants to re-engage economically after disruptions caused by the coronavirus pandemic, some Western governments now want a Russian-backed trade war with China, according to several a Western official that negotiations could begin before the end of this year.
In recent months, Chinese diplomats have heard from Ukrainian and Russian officials about the possibility of restarting peace talks, according to officials in several countries, along with Turkey, which has also expressed willingness to hold possible talks. Earlier talks were held between Kiev and Moscow, which broke down in the summer of 2022, mainly in Istanbul.
Ukraine later established a forum called “Peace Summit” with non-Western countries, including China, India and Saudi Arabia, several countries that have better relations with Russia. Members have been holding talks for almost a year, but China has only attended one meeting and Moscow has yet to be invited.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a recent interview that diplomats from various countries participating in the summit could soon present a peace plan to Russia. Zelensky has said that he would only discuss with Russia in forums that include Xi Jinping and that China must be the guarantor of any possible deal, according to people familiar with past talks.
The US government recently said that China has increased its efforts to provide lethal aid to Russia that could be used in the manufacture of weapons. However, German officials said that China’s refusal to provide any arms and ammunition to Moscow two years after the war began shows that the Chinese government has not yet made a choice and may still lean towards Putin.
“China is still walking a tightrope,” said a senior official.
Notably, China has yet to complete the expansion of Russia’s natural gas import pipeline which is in the early stages of construction, even as Russia, which no longer sells natural gas to Europe, tries to find new buyers. A senior Kremlin official who recently visited Beijing said that the Chinese government was stalling for time in order to maintain its influence over Putin in order to pressure Putin to end the war if it caused too much damage to the Chinese economy.
In recent months, a number of people close to the Kremlin have begun working through informal channels to restart negotiations, seeking to use peace talks that eventually collapsed in 2022 as a baseline for a final agreement. During the negotiations, Russia offered to withdraw its troops from parts of Ukraine on condition that Ukraine limits the size of its troops and prohibits it from receiving Western military aid.
Chinese diplomats have been discussing possible talks with senior officials from Ukraine, Russia and Western countries in recent months, including in a series of visits at the beginning of March. However, given that these officials were junior diplomats and did not appear to have received clear instructions from Xi Jinping, this round of operations was questioned by most Western governments.
Xi Jinping holds regular talks with Putin, but has spoken to Zelensky only once since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war and has so far turned down Ukraine’s requests for a meeting.
According to people familiar with the above discussions, Ambassador Li Hui, the special representative for Eurasian affairs, led a Chinese delegation to Kiev and received a cold reception from Andriy Yermak, Zelensky’s chief of staff. Yermak gave a brief presentation to his Chinese guests, showing evidence of Chinese parts found in weapons such as drones used by Russia to attack Ukraine.
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