Germany’s Ascent: A New European Power and the Risks of Re-armament
– For decades, the question surrounding Germany’s role in European security wasn’t whether it *could* become a military power, but whether it *would*. Now, as Russia’s aggression in Ukraine reshapes the continent’s strategic landscape, Germany is rapidly transforming its armed forces, aiming to become what Chancellor Friedrich Merz has described as “Europe’s strongest conventional army” for the first time since World War II.
The shift is marked by a significant increase in military spending, expected to reach $189 billion annually by – more than triple the level. Active duty personnel stood at 184,000 troops last November, a jump of 2,500 since May, when Merz first articulated his ambition for the Bundeswehr. A new law passed last month mandates a compulsory questionnaire for 18-year-old men, registering their fitness for army service, paving the way for potential mandatory conscription should voluntary recruitment fall short.
This dramatic re-armament isn’t occurring in a vacuum. It’s a response to a perceived need for greater European self-reliance in the face of an increasingly unpredictable global order. As one Polish official stated in , “I fear German inaction less than German power.” That sentiment, once largely confined to Eastern European capitals wary of historical precedent, is now more widespread, with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte urging Germany to “spend more and produce more” in .
However, Germany’s rise as a military power is not without its complexities. While many in Europe welcome a stronger Berlin to bolster the continent’s defenses, concerns are growing about the potential for a shift in the balance of power and the emergence of new rivalries. France, traditionally seen as Europe’s primary military power, is reportedly scrambling to maintain its relevance. Poland, despite expressing a desire for a stronger Germany, is also mindful of historical tensions and the potential for a Berlin-Warsaw alliance to dominate the region.
The fiscal realities are also contributing to the changing dynamic. Germany’s economic strength allows it to significantly increase defense spending, while countries like France and Poland grapple with debt and budgetary constraints. Germany recently loosened its debt brake to allow for almost unlimited defense expenditures, a flexibility not shared by many of its neighbors.
The potential for internal divisions within Europe is further exacerbated by the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). The party’s nationalist rhetoric and skepticism towards European integration raise concerns that a future AfD-led government might use its military power to pursue its own agenda, potentially clashing with its allies and undermining European unity. Some members of the AfD have even made revanchist claims about neighboring territories.
Experts warn that Germany must carefully navigate this new role, embedding its military strength within more deeply integrated European structures to allay fears of dominance. Greater collaboration on defense industries and joint European borrowing for defense spending are seen as potential solutions. However, Berlin has so far resisted calls for greater EU control over defense procurement, preferring to prioritize domestic firms.
The historical parallels are striking. As Ferdinand Foch warned in , the failure to maintain constraints on Germany’s military after World War I ultimately paved the way for another global conflict. Margaret Thatcher, in , voiced similar concerns about the destabilizing potential of a reunified Germany. Today, the challenge is not to prevent Germany from re-arming, but to ensure that its growing military power is used to strengthen, rather than divide, Europe.
The coming years will be critical in determining whether Germany’s ascent will lead to a more secure and united Europe, or a return to the rivalries and tensions of the past. The stakes, as history demonstrates, are exceptionally high.
