Elections being held around the world this year have emerged as a variable that will shake up the Korean economy. This year is a ‘super election year’ with 4.2 billion people voting in 76 countries around the world, including Taiwan’s presidential election held this month. In particular, there is the US presidential election in November, where former US President Donald Trump is running for re-election.
Depending on the voting results in each country, the possibility of economic and security consequences has also increased. In particular, economic uncertainty has increased as changes in trade and trade policy are anticipated following the election results. It is noted that we need to prepare preventively with a strategy in mind to respond to the establishment of a new regime in neighboring countries.
Former President Donald Trump, who won a landslide victory in the Iowa caucus, the first primary to elect a US Republican presidential candidate, is campaigning in Atkinson, New Hampshire on the 16th (local time). /happy news
◇ Is there a hole in the ‘global supply chain’ more damaging than the Russo-US war?
According to foreign media on the 19th, in Taiwan, Lai Ching-de, the leading candidate of the Progressive Democratic Party which follows ‘in favor of America and independence’, was elected president on the 13th. As the Democratic Progressive Party managed to seize power for the third time in a row, the conflict between the two sides of the Straits (Taiwan and China) and between the United States and China over the Taiwan Strait is expected to intensify.
The Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) recently published a report titled ‘Results and Implications of the 2024 Taiwan Presidential Election’ which analyzed that the damage to our economy will be significant if military tensions increase in the Taiwan Strait. It was believed that if China, in protest against the victory of the pro-American regime, began to block the Taiwan Strait, a hole could be created in the global supply chain.
Bloomberg Economics predicted that if a military conflict were to occur in the Taiwan Strait, the damage would be far greater than COVID-19 and the war between Russia and Ukraine. Bloomberg Economics predicted that the damage would reach $10 trillion, equivalent to 10% of global gross domestic product (GDP). By country, it is analyzed that Korea, a neighboring country, will suffer the second biggest economic damage following Taiwan, the party in question.
Heo Jae-cheol, head of Japan KIEP’s East Asia team, said, “Our government must also continue diplomatic efforts to reduce military tensions in the Taiwan Strait and establish peace and stability.” He added, “There needs to be a sophisticated and careful approach towards that. avoid being seen as meddling in internal affairs or taking sides.” “It’s required,” he said.
On the 12th, a day before Taiwan’s presidential election, officials in New Taipei City organize the papers to be used for voting. /happy news
◇ If Trump is revived, Korean companies may be in trouble like ‘Nakdong River duck eggs’
Russia and Ukraine, which are at war, will hold elections in March, India in April, and Japan in September. In particular, the world’s attention is focused on the US presidential election in November. This is because there is a possibility that former US President Donald Trump may return to the White House.
Some predict that if Trump pursues stronger protectionism than during the first administration, tariffs on foreign products could be raised by 10 percentage points (P). A sudden increase in tariffs could lead to a trade war.
In addition, if former President Trump’s promise to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) becomes a reality, Korean companies that built electric vehicle battery factories, wind power generation facilities, and solar panels in the United States are expected to suffer a shot
Woo Seok-jin, a professor of economics at Myongji University, said, “If former President Trump is elected, our country could end up looking like a dog chasing a chicken,” and added, “We may have to completely review the management plan. created in accordance with the policies of the Biden administration. “
Voices are saying that our country should, before the general election in April, reduce the overuse of policies aimed at winning voters’ votes.
Ha Jun-kyung, an economics professor at Hanyang University, said, “It is a year of great uncertainty, especially in a situation where our country’s national interests are influenced by who wins a powerful country’s election.” , pouring money in the first half of the year can be risky,” he said.
#Election #relay #happening #world.. #Growing #economic #concern #Korea
