Global Liver Cirrhosis Burden: Trends & Projections 1990-2060
Here’s a breakdown of the key information from the provided text,focusing on liver cirrhosis:
1. Regional Differences in Cirrhosis Rates (ASPR – Age-Standardized Prevalence Rate):
* Increase in High SDI Regions: The age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of liver cirrhosis significantly increased in high Socio-Demographic index (SDI) regions (95% CI: 0.535-0.627).
* Stability/Decline Elsewhere: ASPR remained stable or declined in other regions.
* NAFLD vs. Hepatitis B: Generally, liver cirrhosis due to Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) was more prevalent than cirrhosis from other causes except in low SDI regions, where chronic Hepatitis B was the more common cause before 2008.
2. Risk Factors for Cirrhosis:
* Primary Risks: Drug use and high alcohol use are the two main behavioral risk factors for liver cirrhosis.
* High SDI Region – Highest Rates: The high SDI region had the highest rates of cirrhosis deaths related to both drug use (22.97%) and excessive alcohol consumption (52.41%) in 2021.
* Trends in Risk Factor Contribution:
* The proportion of cirrhosis deaths due to high alcohol use increased in all regions except the high SDI region (where it slightly decreased).
* The proportion of cirrhosis deaths due to drug use increased across all regions.
3.Figure 7:
* Figure 7A shows the proportion of deaths attributable to risk factors in 1990.
* Figure 7B shows the proportion of deaths attributable to risk factors in 2021.
* Figure 7C shows the trend of these proportions from 1990-2021.
In essence,the text highlights a shifting landscape of liver cirrhosis,with increasing rates in developed regions,a growing role of NAFLD as a cause (except in some developing regions),and a concerning rise in the contribution of drug use to cirrhosis-related deaths globally.