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Global Oil Market Update: US Inventory Data and Geopolitical Tensions in the Red Sea

International oil prices closed lower on Thursday (28th) as US crude oil inventories fell last week, but the market was not boosted by the data and concerns over possible shipping disruptions in the Red Sea came to a head back burner too.

energy commodity prices

  • West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for February delivery fell $2.34, or 3.2%, to settle at $71.77 a barrel.
  • Brent crude oil futures for February delivery fell $1.26, or 1.6%, to $78.39 a barrel.
  • Brent crude oil futures for March delivery fell $2.39, or 3%, to $77.15 a barrel It was the most actively traded Brent future.
  • Gasoline futures for January delivery fell 3.2% to settle at $2.085 a gallon.
  • Thermal fuel futures for January delivery fell 2.6% to settle at $2.556 a gallon.
  • Natural gas futures for February delivery rose 4.9% to settle at $2.557 per million Btu.

market drivers

Shipping company Maersk said on Wednesday it had scheduled dozens of container ships to sail the Suez Canal and the Red Sea in the coming days and weeks.

After the previous war between Israel and Kazakhstan began, Houthi rebels launched a series of drone and missile attacks on ships passing through the Red Sea to express support for Hamas, causing Maersk and other major shipping companies to divert ships away from the region, triggering market disruption concerns about the Middle East oil shipments.

Last week, the United States announced the launch of an international naval operation to prevent attacks by Houthi rebels on commercial ships in the Red Sea. Maersk announced on Sunday that it would resume navigation in the Red Sea.

Stephen Innes, managing partner of SPI Asset Management, said: “Despite ongoing missile attacks by Houthi rebels, global shipping giants are still preparing to resume sailing in the Red Sea, leading to a drop in oil prices.” Based on risk calculations, company ships resume sailing in the Red Sea because They are confident that the international maritime task force entrusted to protect the region will fulfill its mission.

Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group, said on Thursday that the Red Sea route had suffered a major sell-off in the last 24 hours due to threats, but this situation may be reversed.

supply report

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced that US crude oil inventories fell by 6.9 million barrels last week (ending December 22), gasoline inventories fell by 600,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 800,000 barrels , however, oil prices failed to receive a sustained boost.

According to the S&P Global Commodity Insight survey, analysts on average expected US crude oil inventories to fall by 3.5 million barrels last week, gasoline inventories to increase by 710,000 barrels, and distillate inventories to fall by 50,000 barrels.

According to sources, the American Petroleum Institute (API) announced late Wednesday that US crude oil inventories increased by 1.8 million barrels last week.

The EIA report also noted that natural gas inventories fell by 87 billion cubic feet last week.

Analysts on average expected U.S. natural gas inventories to fall by 78 billion cubic feet last week, according to a survey by S&P Global Commodity Insight.

Schneider Electric commodity analyst Victoria Dircksen said the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weather forecast for the 8th to the 14th shows that temperatures in the southern half of the continental US are expected to be below average, which will increases heat demand to a. to some extent, boosting the future of natural gas.

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