Global oil prices advanced on October 12, 2026, as traders weighed supply disruptions from attacks
- Global oil prices advanced on October 12, 2026, as traders weighed supply disruptions from attacks on Saudi Arabia and the Strait of Hormuz against proposed U.S.-backed Russian diesel...
- The price recovery came in spite of an announcement from U.S.
- Violence in the Middle East intensified over the weekend when the Iran-backed Houthi movement claimed responsibility for a strike on the international airport in Riyadh.
Global oil prices advanced on October 12, 2026, as traders weighed supply disruptions from attacks on Saudi Arabia and the Strait of Hormuz against proposed U.S.-backed Russian diesel exports. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures gained 2.0% to settle at $93.74 per barrel, Ambito reported.
The price recovery came in spite of an announcement from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding a proposed energy ceasefire in Europe and new Russian fuel shipments. The market instead focused on escalating physical risks to Middle Eastern energy infrastructure, tightening supplies, and ongoing regional conflicts involving Iran and Houthi forces.
Attacks on Saudi Arabia and Strait of Hormuz Disrupt Supply
Violence in the Middle East intensified over the weekend when the Iran-backed Houthi movement claimed responsibility for a strike on the international airport in Riyadh. The attack resulted in 13 deaths and more than 300 injuries, according to reports cited by Ambito and Clarin. Clarin noted that the ongoing bombardment forced regional authorities to urge residents to seek shelter as explosions shook the Saudi capital.
Infobae reported that the disruption at Riyadh’s airport impacted attendees and delegates traveling to the 25th World Petroleum Congress (WPC), keeping executives from ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, and BP away from the event. Meanwhile, maritime security incidents compounded supply fears. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported multiple attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman.
Infobae added that Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ismail Bagaei warned that navigation through the Strait of Hormuz would remain unsafe as long as the United States maintains its naval blockade and economic pressure. Clarin cited energy analyst Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates, who stated that the Houthi strikes demonstrate clear threats to vital Saudi refining and transport infrastructure, including the Yanbu port complex on the Red Sea.
Trump Energy Ceasefire and Russian Diesel Exports
The upward momentum in energy prices persisted despite interventions by U.S. President Donald Trump, who announced a temporary energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Trump also stated support for immediate shipments of more than 300,000 metric tons (2.25 million barrels) of Russian diesel to help ease domestic and global supply constraints ahead of U.S. midterm elections.
However, analysts remained skeptical regarding the durability and practical execution of the arrangement. Clarin noted that similar diplomatic claims made by Washington in September failed to alter actual battlefield conditions or halt strikes on energy installations in Eastern Europe.
Goldman Sachs Forecasts and Gulf of Mexico Weather Impacts
Reflecting heightened geopolitical risk premiums, financial institutions adjusted their market outlooks. Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent price forecast from $85 to $90 per barrel, incorporating a risk premium of over $20. The firm projected that WTI prices would average $81 in December 2026 and $73 in 2027, constrained by wide transport cost differentials between the United States and Europe.
Additional supply pressures emerged in the Western Hemisphere. Major operators including Shell, Chevron, and BP evacuated personnel and began assessing platform damage in the Gulf of Mexico following Hurricane Isaías, which made landfall on the morning of October 10, 2026.
Upcoming Inflation Data and Market Volatility
Energy markets face a volatile period as traders await upcoming U.S. and European inflation releases alongside central bank commentary. Bloomberg Línea noted that these economic indicators, paired with corporate earnings reports, will test market resilience as investors continue to price in ongoing maritime disruptions and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.