GLP-1 Drugs Could Boost Apparel Retail Spending by $13 Billion Annually

The growing adoption of GLP-1 weight-loss medications in the United States could generate an annual increase in apparel spending ranging from $3 billion to $13 billion, according to estimates from equity research firm Bernstein.

The projection is based on the trend of consumers shedding significant weight and subsequently refreshing their wardrobes to accommodate smaller sizes. Analysts suggest that this shift creates a fresh opportunity for fashion brands and retailers to capture spending from users who are replacing old clothing with items that fit their new dimensions.

Market Impact and Consumer Behavior

Bernstein’s analyst team, led by Aneesha Sherman, expects GLP-1 users to expand their apparel shopping baskets for a period of one to three years. This spending is anticipated to cover multiple size changes during the weight loss process and a full wardrobe replacement once a goal weight is achieved.

Data from market research firm Circana indicates that sales of larger bra sizes have already declined, which is viewed as a leading indicator that will likely extend to other clothing categories.

According to the Bernstein report, typical weight loss over one year of GLP-1 usage ranges between 10 percent and 20 percent. For an adult, this equates to a loss of 20 to 50 pounds and a reduction of one to five clothing sizes.

Projected Adoption Rates

The financial impact is tied to the expanding user base of these drugs. Bernstein estimates that GLP-1 users represent between 5 percent and 15 percent of U.S. Adults aged 18 to 65, which implies a user population of 10 million to 30 million people.

Based on the annual Bernstein Shopper Survey of 4,000 U.S. Shoppers, adoption grew from 11 percent at the end of 2024 to 16 percent by the close of 2025.

This growth is expected to accelerate further following the approval of the medication in pill form. Bernstein’s U.S. Biopharma analyst team estimates that the number of U.S. Patients will expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the mid-20s through 2030.

Beneficiaries Across Retail Sectors

Different segments of the retail industry are positioned to benefit from this shift in consumer spending. Aneesha Sherman identified several key categories of retailers likely to see increased activity:

• Off-price retailers: Stores such as T.J. Maxx are cited as potential beneficiaries.
• Discount retailers: Major chains including Walmart and Target are expected to see a boost.
• Bespoke and styling services: Retailers like Stitch Fix and Rent the Runway are highlighted due to their personalized approach to sizing and wardrobe curation.
• Athletic apparel: Brands in the athletic sector are also expected to benefit as users incorporate more physical activity into their weight-loss journeys.

The consumer experience often involves a transition from oversized or baggy clothing to form-fitting outfits. For example, some users have reported purchasing smaller T-shirts and athletic footwear, such as Hoka sneakers, as they increase their activity levels and decrease their clothing size.

That’s part of the excitement — to wear things that are new and fit rather than old clothes that you can tie the drawstring tighter

Michelle Suter, GLP-1 user