Gold’s recent dip from record highs is being viewed as a buying opportunity by analysts at ANZ, who have raised their second-quarter price target to $5,800 per ounce. The revised forecast, up from $5,400, reflects continued macroeconomic support for the precious metal, including expectations of potential interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
The assessment, detailed in a report released on , suggests that the current pullback is unlikely to derail the medium-term bullish trend for gold. ANZ analysts Soni Kumari and Daniel Hynes stated that structural drivers remain in place, attracting new investment despite recent volatility. They believe the rally is not yet mature enough to reverse quickly.
This bullish outlook comes as global markets continue to grapple with a complex interplay of factors. Expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are seen as a key driver, potentially pushing down real yields and bolstering gold’s appeal as a store of value. Lower real yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.
Geopolitical risks and economic uncertainty are also contributing to the positive sentiment. Concerns surrounding the direction of Federal Reserve policy, coupled with the potential impact of tariffs on global growth and inflation, are prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets. Gold has historically served as a reliable hedge during times of economic and political turmoil.
The revised forecast from ANZ aligns with a broader market view that gold remains a compelling investment despite recent price fluctuations. Institutional investors are revising their target prices upwards, reflecting the macroeconomic safe-haven demand. This suggests a sustained belief in gold’s medium-term trajectory, even in the face of short-term volatility.
The focus now shifts to upcoming economic data releases, particularly US inflation figures, and their potential to further solidify expectations of interest rate cuts. Stronger-than-expected inflation data could dampen hopes for near-term easing, potentially weighing on gold prices. Conversely, softer inflation readings would likely reinforce the dovish outlook and provide further support.
Geopolitical developments will also remain a critical factor. Escalations in existing conflicts or the emergence of new tensions could trigger a flight to safety, driving demand for gold. The inherent uncertainty surrounding global political stability continues to underpin the metal’s safe-haven appeal.
While gold is benefiting from these tailwinds, other precious metals have experienced a more mixed performance. According to recent market activity, precious metals, excluding silver, have shown a negative trend throughout the week, with significant volatility. Analysts note that gold’s relative strength stems from its higher weighting in portfolio protection strategies, its lower volatility compared to other precious metals, and its established reputation as a safe haven.
Recent price movements reflect this divergence. Over a recent period, gold prices increased by 1.78% on an ounce basis, while platinum declined by 1.57%, palladium fell by 0.52%, and silver remained relatively stable. This performance underscores gold’s unique position as a preferred asset during periods of uncertainty.
It’s worth noting that ANZ previously raised its year-end gold price forecast to $3,800 per ounce in September 2025, citing strong investment demand. The latest revision to $5,800 for the second quarter of 2026 represents a substantial upgrade, reflecting the evolving macroeconomic landscape and the increasing conviction in gold’s bullish outlook.
The current environment presents a complex picture for investors. While the potential for interest rate cuts and geopolitical risks supports gold’s upside, the possibility of stronger-than-expected economic data or a de-escalation of geopolitical tensions could introduce headwinds. Careful monitoring of these factors will be crucial for navigating the precious metals market in the coming months.
The ANZ report emphasizes that the macroeconomic backdrop continues to be supportive of gold prices. The combination of potential monetary easing, geopolitical instability, and concerns about global economic growth creates a favorable environment for the precious metal to thrive. Investors are increasingly recognizing gold’s role as a valuable component of a diversified portfolio, particularly in times of heightened uncertainty.
