The doctor emphasized that don’t think that deregulation after the vaccine is regaining freedom. In fact, you are throwing yourself into a new cage; the picture is a situational photo. (Data photo, photo by reporter Fang Bin)
[Health Channel/Comprehensive Report]Today (21) there were no confirmed cases of Wuhan pneumonia (new coronavirus disease, COVID-19) in Taiwan, and no deaths. There were only 5 cases of imported cases from abroad. The doctor said that not only the Alpha variant virus has been eliminated, but it seems that the Delta variant virus has also been successfully contained. This means that as long as Taiwan’s epidemic prevention is not slack, the virus will not be able to break through the community’s defenses.
Shen Zhengnan, a physician at the Caotun Nursing Home of the Ministry of Health and Welfare, mentioned in a Facebook post that there were 920 new cases in Singapore today, and the R value is about 1.4 so far. Singapore is optimistic that after reaching a complete vaccination coverage rate of more than 80%, the intensive care unit cases account for only 0.2%, which is equivalent to 1,000 new cases every day, and only 2 cases need to live in the new crown intensive care unit. But in fact, there are only 100 COVID-19 intensive care units in Singapore, which means it will be full in 50 days at the slowest. If the R value cannot be suppressed below 1, the number of new cases will double every 10 days, not to mention the 0.2% critical illness rate in the intensive care unit is almost the most optimistic estimate. According to the data published by the United States in “Lancet”, especially the elderly breakthrough infection, the severe illness rate in the intensive care unit can reach 2%.
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Shen Zhengnan said that Singapore intends to gradually relax regulations and coexist with the virus, but the current regulations on restaurant use and exhibition viewing are stricter than those in Taiwan. However, Singapore has relaxed entry quarantine in some countries. For example, Taiwanese do not need to be separated as long as they test negative for PCR after entering the country. However, the number of people who have entered the country is not large. If this is the case, why has the number of cases increased?
Shen Zhengnan said that because Singapore does not have a comprehensive carpet survey, it only focuses on serious clusters. As for sporadic cases, only the family members are allowed to isolate themselves. Of course, there will be fish that slip through the net. In addition, Singapore has shortened the 14-day quarantine of contacts to 10 days, which may have missed some cases with a long incubation period. If the above measures are relaxed, it may become Israel, the United Kingdom, and the United States. He said bluntly, “It seems that they have to wear seat belts because they don’t know how the epidemic will evolve next.”
Shen Zhengnan pointed out that Taiwan has been cleared, how to relax the epidemic prevention measures next? Like the United Kingdom and the United States, 80% of the people will let it go after two doses, or continue to stick to the border and take personal protection? In terms of population ratio, if Taiwan is the same as Singapore, it slightly relaxes border controls and relaxes part of the epidemic response and list, even if 80% of the population is fully vaccinated, there will be about 4,000 new cases every day, and about 10 people will need intensive care units; If you follow the example of the United Kingdom and the United States without wearing masks, 12,000 new people will be diagnosed every day, and the demand for intensive care units will increase by 30 people every day. Taiwan’s medical system alone may collapse. When it comes to such data, do you dare to use it internally and gather together? I’m afraid the school has to close too.
Shen Zhengnan emphasized, so don’t think that deregulation after vaccinations is to regain your freedom. In fact, you are throwing yourself into a new cage. He bluntly stated that with the current effectiveness of the new crown vaccine, it is impossible to return people to their lives in 2019, which is reality and science. Moreover, Taiwan has its own anti-epidemic features, and its emphasis on health is different from that of other countries. No politician has the means to bear the responsibility for the out-of-control epidemic.
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