TOP rose 2.38% or 1.25% to 53.75 baht, trading value 886.07 million baht at 16.10 baht from the opening price of 53 baht, the highest price was 54 baht, the lowest price was 53 baht.
DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) stated in the analysis of Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP) that it expects net profit in 4Q21 to grow +126% QoQ to 4.65 thousand. million baht (but -36%YoY). Supporting factor for the QoQ recovery is higher GRM, expected at $5.4/barrel (+238%QoQ and +350%YoY), estimated stock profit of 2.1 billion. baht and expected FX profit of 300 million baht. Norm profit is expected at 2.23 billion baht (+177%YoY, +281%QoQ).
Outlook for 65 GRM is expected to remain strong from recovering demand and higher oil prices. The impact from omikron is not as severe as previously expected. Currently, GRM, JET, GO, ULG changes +11%, +17%, -6% QTD on aromatics spreads are expected. PX spreads have bottomed out as of Jan 17, ’22 PX and BZ spreads increased by +32% and +27% QTD to $126 and $187/ton.
CFT project supports long-term profits Currently, about 70% of the construction is complete and when it is completed in early 2024F, the refinery’s production capacity will increase from 2.75 to 400,000 barrels per day. More efficient use of energy and no fuel oil in production Total investment for this project is $5.0 billion.
Maintain BUY recommendation. TOP gives a base price of Bt67 based on 22F P/BV of 1.10x (5-year average).
