Nevada’s Crucial Role in the US Presidential Election

The situation in Nevada is not simple ahead of the US presidential election in November. When President Joe Biden was the Democratic presidential candidate, former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, seemed to be solidifying his victory by gaining an advantage in Nevada opinion polls. However, Vice President Kamala Harris, who took over the Democratic presidential nomination from President Biden in July, succeeded in catching up with her rival.

Nevada has 6 electoral votes, the lowest among the major swing states. Despite this, the state has traditionally been a ‘barometer’ for the flow of US presidential elections. In the past 12 presidential elections, the candidate who won in Nevada entered the White House 10 times. If we expand the scope since 1900, the candidate who won in the Nevada presidential election was elected with a 90% probability.

Both Democratic and Republican candidates are putting effort into Nevada, particularly in increasing the real income of service industry workers through a ‘tip exemption’ measure. Former President Trump visited Las Vegas, Nevada’s largest city, in June and announced for the first time that he would abolish the income tax on tips. In response, Vice President Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, countered at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas in August by saying that she would significantly increase the minimum wage in addition to the tip exemption measure.

/optimize/” alt=”Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, speaks during a campaign rally held at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas on August 11 (local time). 2024.08.11.” style=”float:; margin:0 auto;display:block;” class=” “/>

According to the current polls, the two candidates are currently tied 1-1 in Nevada. Vice President Harris was able to narrow the gap with former President Trump in Nevada, and in the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll conducted from the 23rd to the 26th of last month, she was 4%p ahead of former President Trump (46%) with a 50% approval rating.

Nevada Hispanic voters, who had held back on supporting President Biden, have opened their hearts to the Democratic Party again after the change in candidates. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Hispanics make up 30% of Nevada residents, the second largest group after whites (45%).

/optimize/” alt=”Former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, visited the Mexican restaurant ‘Il Toro e La Capra’ in Las Vegas, Nevada on the 24th of last month (local time) and reiterated his pledge to ‘exempt tip income tax’, which he first made in June. 2024.08.24.” style=”float:; margin:0 auto;display:block;” class=” “/>

Nevada’s high unemployment rate and skyrocketing housing prices are also considered key variables that will influence public sentiment. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Nevada’s unemployment rate in July was 5.4%, the highest among the 50 U.S. states (average 4.3%).

In addition, as residents of nearby California, struggling with high prices, are moving to Nevada, Nevada’s home prices in July rose 6.1% year-on-year, according to a survey by Zillow, a U.S. real estate information company, which significantly exceeded the U.S. average increase rate (4.2%) during the same period.

/optimize/” alt=”Nevada’s economy and housing market” style=”float:; margin:0 auto;display:block;” class=” “/>