Amid speculation that Ukraine, which was invaded by Russia in February last year, will soon launch an “anti-insurgency spring”, it has been argued that the number of Russian soldiers dying on the battlefield in Ukraine is still on average in the hundreds a day.
The UK Ministry of Defense announced on the 25th local time that the average daily casualty rate in Russia was likely to have fallen by around 30% in April compared to the March figure, but could have killed more than 500 people a day still.
According to UK Ministry of Defense data, the average number of casualties in Russia in March was 776, while in April the daily average was 568.
Russia does not release its own casualty figures, but the UK Ministry of Defense said there were “exceptionally high” casualties between January and March, when Russia launched an active offensive to seize more Ukrainian territory.
Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, also told US political media Politico in late February that “about 1,200 Russian soldiers were killed in one day in Bakhmut, eastern Ukraine, one of the battlefields of the this war.”
Britain’s Ministry of Defense analyzed that the slowdown in Russian casualties from an average of 700 a day in March to around 500 in April “was not the result of Ukraine’s counteroffensive efforts, but rather the result of Russia’s move to a more defensive posture .”
“Russian forces attempted a winter offensive but failed to achieve their objectives, so losses are likely to decrease,” he added.
At the moment, strategic weapons from Western countries are arriving in Ukraine one after the other. As a result, an expectation is emerging that a spring counterattack is imminent.
“Russia is secretly recruiting ‘extra troops’… Concerns about public backlash.”
Meanwhile, documents leaked by the United States have revealed that Russia is secretly recruiting new soldiers for the war in Ukraine.
On the 26th, the Washington Post (WP), citing a recently leaked classified document, said, “In mid-February, the Russian military offered to ‘quietly recruit’ 400,000 additional troops for the war in Ukraine, and said Russian President Vladimir Putin, We support this proposal.”
As the war in Ukraine drags on longer than expected, as stated by the British Ministry of Defence, Russia has suffered significant manpower losses and is in an urgent position to replenish its troops. Moreover, expecting a major offensive in the spring in Ukraine would require more troops.
However, having already launched an invasion of Ukraine with around 150,000 troops in February last year, the Russian authorities, who called in around 300,000 more troops through a partial mobilization in September last year, faced resistance strong from the people. In addition, with the national economy reeling from Western sanctions and export controls, it is almost certain that the additional mobilization order will face opposition from the public.
In fact, when the partial mobilization order was issued in September last year, there was a line of Russian men trying to escape abroad.
A leaked US document dated February 17 states that “political reluctance to order additional mobilization in Ukraine to compensate for Russian losses has led senior officials to address the manpower shortage with less centralized strategies.” specified.
It means that if an additional mobilization order is issued, the people may rebel, so they recruit soldiers ‘secretly’.
The WP analyzed that “the information could be part of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s plan to increase the number of armed forces from 1.15 million to 1.5 million by 2026.”
The Russian government, plagued by a troop shortage, is also continuing an open campaign. Authorities launched an aggressive recruitment campaign this month encouraging men to pursue a military career as contract soldiers, and last week also aired a video advertisement encouraging enlistment.
Reporter Song Hyeon-seo huimin0217@seoul.co.kr
