Huang Lichen: Pay attention to the US CPI data, the downward pressure on gold prices is great
In the Asian market on Wednesday, July 13, the trend of international gold rose slightly. The gold price opened at US$1,724 in the morning, the lowest fell to US$1,722, and the highest rose to US$1,728. Currently, it is currently trading around US$1,727, and the price fluctuates little in the short term. .
The U.S. dollar continued to refresh on Tuesday, reaching a new high in the past two decades, mainly due to the strong demand for the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven and the expectation of aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, which drove the U.S. dollar to continue to strengthen. The strong U.S. dollar suppressed gold to a new low in the past nine months. Huang Lichen believes that the prospect of global central bank interest rate hikes, especially the prospect of Fed rate hikes, will further increase the opportunity cost of holding gold. At the same time, market safe-haven funds continue to flock to the US dollar, and gold still faces greater downward pressure.
After losing support near $1,830, the price of gold tested the last eleven-month low of $1,721 for two consecutive trading days. It found support here and rebounded upward. The market outlook can continue to pay attention to this support level. If the price of gold continues to break down, You can focus on the integer position of $1,700. It is expected that the price of gold will be between $1,720 and $1,700, and the bulls will increase their resistance.
In terms of news, the market’s safe-haven funds flocked to the U.S. dollar, and the Fed’s aggressive interest rate hike expectations have pushed the U.S. dollar to continuously refresh new highs in the past two decades, which has put a lot of pressure on gold prices. A 50 basis point interest rate hike and a possible 75 basis point hike in Canada will increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is not good for gold prices.
In addition, the market focus during the day is on the US June CPI data in the evening. It is generally expected that inflation may continue to hit a new high in 40 years. Although high inflation is good for the price of gold, inflation continues to rise, which is also for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates later this month. 75 basis points paves the way. Relatively speaking, the negative components account for a larger proportion, and the data may suppress the price of gold to continue to decline.
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Technically, at the weekly level, gold has four consecutive yin, and the main technical indicators show a scattered arrangement of bears, and the bears have a greater advantage; at the daily level, gold fluctuates under pressure and continues to test downwards. It is currently at a low level in the past eleven months. The point is supported near $1721, the moving average indicator is short, the Bollinger Band is running down, the KDJ and RSI indicators are running to the oversold area, and the dead cross below the MACD zero axis is down, showing that the bears are dominant, but there is a rebound adjustment in the short-term. need.
Overall, the US dollar continues to maintain its strength, and the US inflation data may continue to rise in the evening, which will strengthen the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates by 75 basis points this month, all of which are detrimental to the price of gold. The price of gold is in the range of $1720 to $1700, and many parties will increase their resistance. Above, focus on the position of the daily 5-day moving average and the lower track of the weekly Bollinger Band, with pressure near $1734, and further rebound space. Focus on the vicinity of $1750, and strictly control risks. .
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