Humans Nearly Went Extinct 900,000 Years Ago?
- A study published in 2023 suggests the human population dwindled to a shockingly low number - as few as 1,280 breeding individuals - approximately 900,000 years ago.
- The FitCoal method, developed by researchers at the University of Florence, improves upon previous analyses by accounting for the fact that different parts of the genome evolve at...
- A 2024 study published in the journal Genetics argued the signal detected in the 2023 study could be a statistical artifact, created by assumptions within the model rather...
At some point in the deep past, humans may have come frighteningly close to disappearing altogether. Hear’s what we certainly know, according to research.
According to genetic evidence published in a 2023 study from Science, our ancestors experienced an extreme population bottleneck around 900,000 years ago. This means just over a thousand breeding individuals persisted for more than 100,000 years. If true, this would’ve been one of the most severe population crashes ever inferred for a large mammal. In fact, a crash as severe as this could have potentially erased the human lineage before it truly began.
The idea has captured public imagination as it reframes our evolution. Most would assume, given our success, that it’s been a steady ascent, rather than a narrow escape. Yet, as with any extraordinary scientific claim, it has also sparked intense debate.Many now wonder whether or not this was really a near-extinction event – or if what we’re actually seeing is a mirage created by the limits of genetic inference. the truth of the matter lies at the intersection of genomics, climate change and the deep uncertainties of reconstructing life nearly a million years in the past.
Here’s a breakdown of what we know,according to research.
Table of Contents
This story started with modern human genomes rather than fossils. In the 2023 study, a team of researchers analyzed genetic data from more than 3,000 present-day individuals across both African and non-African populations. Notably, thay employed a newly developed statistical method called FitCoal (Fast Infinitesimal Time Coalescent Process). With this, they were able to reconstruct changes in ancestral population size far deeper in time than most previous methods would’ve allowed.
The results showed that,between roughly 930,000 and 813,000 years ago,the effective human population size appeared to have plunged down to around 1,280 individuals – a decline of more than 98% from earlier levels. to greater surprise, the findings suggest that this bottleneck persisted for over 100,000 years, which is an uncommonly long time for such a severe demographic collapse.In evolutionary terms, this means that humans were on the verge of extinction.
An crucial distinction to note, however, is that effective population size is not the same thing as
Human Population Faced Severe Bottleneck 900,000 Years Ago, Study Finds
A study published in 2023 suggests the human population dwindled to a shockingly low number – as few as 1,280 breeding individuals – approximately 900,000 years ago. Researchers at the University of Florence used a new computational method called FitCoal to analyze the genomes of present-day individuals and arrive at this conclusion. The findings, published in the journal Nature, indicate a prolonged period of decline lasting roughly 117,000 years.
New Method, New Insights
The FitCoal method, developed by researchers at the University of Florence, improves upon previous analyses by accounting for the fact that different parts of the genome evolve at different rates. This is analogous to how a single feather found in a German quarry in 1860 helped solidify Charles Darwin’s theory of evolution a year later, providing a crucial piece of evidence for understanding evolutionary history. This methodological advance allowed the 2023 study to detect a signal that earlier analyses may have missed.
Debate Over Extinction Event
However, not all geneticists agree with the findings. A 2024 study published in the journal Genetics argued the signal detected in the 2023 study could be a statistical artifact, created by assumptions within the model rather than a genuine population crash.
Researchers cite population structure as a key concern.Early humans likely lived in fragmented groups across africa with limited gene flow. Ignoring this structure could have led FitCoal to incorrectly infer a population decline. another factor is introgression, or gene flow from archaic hominin groups, which was further explored in 2025 research published in Molecular Biology and Evolution.