According to calculations by the Federal Statistical Office, the need for nursing staff could continue to increase in the next few years. Criticism comes from associations.
According to new calculations, the need for additional nursing staff could rise to up to 690,000 people by 2049 due to increasing aging alone. That would be an increase of around a third compared to 2019, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) announced on Wednesday in Wiesbaden.
By the middle of the century, around 2.15 million people would need care. For the pre-Corona year 2019, the Federal Office stated a need for 1.62 million nursing staff.
According to the statisticians, four professional groups are crucial for nursing work: health and nursing care, health and nursing assistance, geriatric care and geriatric care assistance. The forecast recorded the employees who work in these professions.
Two calculation options
To develop the number of nursing staff, two variants with different focuses on demographic and social changes were calculated:
At the “Trend-Variants” In addition to demographic developments, the Federal Office also took into account the positive trends in the nursing labor market from the 2010s. According to this, the number of employed nursing staff will increase to 1.74 million by 2034 and to 1.87 million by 2049. This would ultimately mean a shortage of 280,000 nursing staff “Status Quo-Variable” On the other hand, only shows the effects of demographic developments on the future number of nursing staff. According to this variant, the number of nursing staff would initially fall from 1.62 million in 2019 to 1.48 million by 2034 and to 1.46 million by 2049. The main reason for this development is that large parts of the baby boomer generation will reach retirement age in the next ten years.
“Minister Lauterbach stands by and does nothing
After the forecast was announced, the German Patient Protection Foundation criticized the generalization of nursing staff. Its board member Eugen Brysch told the German Press Agency: “To lump all nursing professions together when it comes to future care needs is a mistake. After all, the conditions and requirements in hospitals are different than in nursing homes or outpatient care services.”
Brysch also warned the federal and state governments that they should not afford any further flops when recruiting foreign nursing staff. “In ten years, only 7,700 new employees were counted. Instead of continuing to burn millions of euros, the recognition and promotion of professional qualifications must take place more quickly.”
The President of the Federal Association of Private Providers of Social Services, Bernd Meurer, particularly criticized federal politics and Health Minister Karl Lauterbach (SPD): “Minister Lauterbach is watching idly as the situation continues to worsen: more and more nursing staff are retiring in the next few years “The number of trainees is collapsing.” A catastrophe is looming in the countries.
