“
Asia Plus Securities raises 3 factors: “Baht appreciation – Relatively high loan balance – Rapid increase in interest rates affecting the economy.” Support the MPC to maintain the policy rate at 1.25% at the meeting on January 25.
Securities Company Research (SEC) Asia Plus Department stated in the analysis that From the high inflation rate in Thailand during the last year +6.08% YoY, causing the MPC to raise interest rates more than 3 times. The MPC in the first quarter of 2023 (first meeting of the year: 25 January 23) should see the policy rate remain at 1.25% as before and start raising interest rates in the second half of the year based on 3 factors .
- Interest rates on loans are quite high, currently 0.82%. The loan interest rate has been raised at an average of 0.42% and recently increased from the fact that the bank must send money to the FIDF at the same rate of 0.40% at the beginning of 2023. It is considered that the loan interest rate loudly. increases the burden of financial costs more
- The baht appreciated quickly from a peak of 38.47 baht / dollar (on October 20, 2022) to the latest at 32.86 baht / dollar, which has appreciated more than 17.07% in just 3 months.
- Rising interest rates too quickly could undermine the potential of the Thai economy. Affects belt tightening in spending/using people. including investment In addition, the economic recovery has a disadvantage from the global economic slowdown, and Thailand’s monetary policy tends to be more relaxed. This is in line with many countries in Asia, such as Japan (holding interest at -0.1%), Malaysia (holding interest at 2.75% for the first month).
As for stocks that benefit from interest rates that have the opportunity to slow the acceleration, or
There are four main groups of interest rates as follows:
• Charter groups: THANI, MTC, TIDLOR, SAWAD, etc.
• Small and medium banks: KKP, TISCO
• Real estate sector: SPALI, LH, AP, QH, ORI, etc.
• High Dividend Stocks : NER, ADVANC , DTAC, MCS, SAT, etc.
summarize : Thailand’s monetary policy is likely to become more accommodative after the MPC raised interest rates 3 times in the past year. In implementing Thailand’s monetary policy in early 2023, the Research Department estimates that the MPC will maintain the policy rate at 1.25% as before from 3 main factors: relatively high M rate, rapid appreciation of the baht, and the fact that raising interest rates too quickly could undermine the potential of the Thai economy.
