Nervous
“By 2030, if all electricity is produced by solar energy, wind turbines and batteries The cost of electricity will not exceed 1 baht per unit The electricity produced will be sufficient to meet 100% of the total demand for electricity. If an additional 20% is invested, the energy will be increased by 200-300%, which will become “Super Power” without using oil, gas, coal, etc.”
Currently, Thai society criticizes the high cost of electricity because two factors converge, namely, because the cost of electricity is really expensive in history, and secondly, because there is an election campaign. Each party offers different policies to reduce electricity bills, in my opinion, this is not a solution to the problem. And it is absolutely impossible to maintain the same policy and production system.
I will not comment on the controversial issue. But he will present important research results from a team of researchers from Stanford University, USA to tell each other. I think most of the readers have probably never heard of it before and didn’t think it was possible. And it’s not just about the idea that you want to get to know each other. but as I bring it as the title of the article Current power stations and those approved by politicians to be built in the future on the contrary. The combined amount in the near future is more than 70,000 megawatts. becomes a graveyard or a pile of rubbish
The research team leader I mentioned previously was invited to give a lecture in Thailand. On the occasion of the 30th anniversary of the establishment of the Petroleum Institute of Thailand in 2016, the subject of the lecture was “Why today’s energy and transport will be obsolete by 2030,” says researcher Tony Seba.
After the lecture, The Nation newspaper (16 May 2016) concluded that “Your time is up. Stanford experts tell the petroleum industry. “
Mr. Tony Seba is world famous for the book he wrote in 2014 and later formed a research team called “Rethink X”, the research I mentioned was published in 2020.
Because the research results can be downloaded from the Internet free of charge. So I would like to submit as shown in the picture. in case those interested can bring it for further study
The research concludes that by 2030, electricity produced from three technologies: solar cells, wind turbines, and batteries will be able to meet 100% of the needs of the United States. Such electricity is continuously available 24 hours a day, every day.Production costs will be no more than 3 cents or no more than 1 baht per unit only.
The researchers used thousands of sets of sun and wind data for different states of the country. then calculate it to electrical energy throughout the year or 8,760 hours after analyzing and finding that batteries must be used to store the remaining electricity and bring it out for use in times of insufficient. Therefore, there is enough electricity to meet demand all the time, forever.
The researcher collects solar cell price data. Wind turbines and batteries for the last 10 years, 2010 to 2020, followed by a forecast for the next 10 years to 2030. The concept used in forecasting is not the linear model used by most forecasters. But this research team uses the concept of “S-Curve” (the letter S curve), leading to a rapid drop in electricity prices to only 1 baht per unit by 2030 or the next 7 years.
It was asked why the price of electricity is so cheap.
The reason is because of the technology that coal power plants use. Natural gas and oil are internal combustion systems. (Using traditional physics knowledge) by using fuel to produce heat. Steam is generated and the steam pressure is used to rotate other parts. Before electricity can be produced, 62% of fuel must be lost as heat (not electricity), so only 38% is left as electricity. But solar cell technology (using modern physics) can produce electricity as soon as sunlight hits the solar panels on the roof of our own house. Similarly, electric cars lose up to 80% of their energy to heating, with only 20% being used for movement.
There are also other reasons such as the development of communication technology developed on the basis of modern physics. Material science, semiconductors, and the often used economic quantity Cheaper, etc.
I’m a mathematician myself. and an interest in mathematical modeling Although I don’t know much about the details. But I understand the concept of it and believe it is really possible.
The researchers calculated the cost required to achieve “100% SWB” (100% solar, wind, and batteries), they found it to be about 1% of US GDP for 10 consecutive years.
We may still not understand whether the budget is more or less 1% of GDP. But data from the Ministry of Energy of Thailand found that the final energy expenditure of Thai people in 2021 and 2022 accounted for 12.2% and 14.6% of GDP, respectively, which is very high compared to developed countries.
In addition, the researchers found that further “Meeting 100% electricity demand with SWB is just the beginning.” But if you invest only 20% of the investment each year receiving an increase in electrical energy to the level known as “Super Power”, where the electricity received, as well as being sufficient for normal use of electricity But still enough for 5 other important activities, viz
1) All nationwide transport
2) Waste water treatment and salt water desalination
3) Enough for heating water
4) Enough for recycling plastic waste
5) Enough for Iron Smelting and Coin Mining too I have a picture to give too.
Clearly, the age of fossil energy is over.
Do you still remember Once upon a time, General Prayut Chan-o-cha used to say that “Solar energy is scarce, unstable and expensive.” The group’s research succeeded in disproving these three statements.
I did not study this research on my own. then publish it without filtering But I have studied conceptual works and research works from several sources such as Oxford University which says, “If the world changes from fossil energy to renewable energy, the world will save 12 trillion dollars the United States within a year. 2050” (written by Jonah Fisher, BBC Environment Correspondent, 12 September 2022), or around 13% of world GDP. The findings were similar to those of the Rethink X group.
In addition, the book The Third Industrial Revolution (The Third Industrial Revolution) by Jeremy Rifkin (published in 2011) states that the world has had an Internet system since the 1990s that allows us to send information. Pictures to exchange and trade between them. not centered on the radio Television like the old times At the same time, the world has “Energy Internet” So we can send electrical energy to trade with each other. Just as we exchange information with each other.
Consumers who used to buy electricity from large power plants can generate electricity from solar cells on their own roof and sell it into the system. “Energy Internet” Yes, users who used to pay only for their wallets (Consumer) become users and sellers (Prosumer) in the same person, that is, money flows into their own pockets as well. Social inequality has decreased. The content of inequality between countries has also decreased. Because every country has its own sun and wind. in contrast to oil Gas and coal are only concentrated in a quarter of the world’s countries, with the other three quarters having to be individual buyers.
I myself have a lesson that I would like to share with the next generation. I mean, in the middle of 1973, the department I worked with became a new department. They were ordering mechanical and hand-cranked calculators (if any number had to be multiplied by 23, it had to be rotated 23 times ). vacuum tube I remember well that some machines cost 30,000 baht (while my salary at that time was 1,320 baht), but at the end of the year German volunteers bought a pocket calculator for only 8,500 baht, which is also more efficient. After a while, the calculator I bought was stored in a metal cabinet until today.
Returning to Thailand’s power plants, until the end of 2022, we have a contract capacity of about 53,000 megawatts 7 ten thousand megawatts able to produce electricity at a cost of about 3 baht per unit, while 100% SWB costs only 1 baht per unit.
I believe that the 70,000 megawatts of power plants in Thailand worth hundreds of billions of baht paid for by the Thai people (with the government’s Availability Agreement) will soon be rubbish as I have seen. Came here 50 years ago, so I would like to remind you to come here with concern.
