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While house prices as well as jeonse prices are falling without knowing the bottom due to rapid increases in interest rates and expectations for house prices falling, as the jeonse price is lower than at the time of the contract two years ago, the ‘reverse jeonse crisis’ where the landlord prepares extra money to return the jeonse deposit becomes visible.
Until now, the reverse rent crisis has emerged in the provinces and the outskirts of the metropolitan area, but as the reverse rent crisis has become a reality in some areas of Seoul where the number of residents is increasing, lease renewal contracts are signed. the condition that the lessee pays two years’ worth of rent to the lessor in advance.
“If you give me 2 years of monthly rent in advance, I will continue to live on a charter”
According to the industry on the 6th, the inverse tax crisis is intensifying in Seoul, Mapo-gu, and Gangseo-gu, where the move in began.
‘Mapo The Clash’ in Ahyeon-dong, Mapo-gu, where occupancy begins on October 30, has 662 units, more than half of the total of 1149 units, listed for charter sales. In the early days of the site, the jeonse asking price was 800 million won for 59㎡ and 1.1 billion won for 84㎡. The number of chartered properties was well above 700 in the middle of last month, when the market started to move in seriously, but the landlords lowered the asking price and continued the contract, so sales had somewhat stopped.
The rental site also lowers the rental price of the neighboring complex. The charter price of ‘Mapo Raemian Prugio’ for 3885 homes near Mapo The Clash is 500 million won for 59m2 and 700 million won for 84m2.
An official from an authorized brokerage office in Ahyeon-dong said, “Two years ago, the 84㎡ charter price was 1.05 billion won, but it dropped more than 300 million won.” Recently, a lease renewal contract has been made on the condition that the lessee pays two years of monthly rent in advance to the lessor.“he said.
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The atmosphere in Gangseo-gu, where new complexes are moving in, is similar. The charter price of ‘Ujangsan Forest I-Park’ in Hwagok-dong, Gangseo-gu, where the occupation started last month, has won 400 million for 59㎡ and 500 million won for 84㎡. The asking price for the complex was originally formed at 700 million won for 59㎡ and 800 million won for 84㎡, but after the occupation began, landlords who could not find tenants competed to lower the deposit, reducing each by 300 million won.
Nearby, Gangseo Hillstate with 2,603 homes and Ujangsan I-Park e Pyeonhansesang with 2,517 homes were once chartered at 700 million won for 59㎡ and 1 billion won for 84㎡, but now 59㎡ is 400 million won and 84㎡ fell to 500 million won.
An official from an authorized brokerage office in Hwagok-dong said, “Many landlords say that although they can expect some weakness in the charter market at the time of moving in, they did not expect a rapid increase in interest rates, but the the price of a charter has fallen by more than 200 million won in two years, but there are not many charter enquiries.”
The 3,375-unit ‘President Gaepo Xi’ located in Gaepo-dong, Gangnam-gu, which is scheduled to move in from March next year, is also in a state of overcrowding with 823 chartered properties , or one in four households. .
Seoul apartment chart, an increase of 3,000 in one month … Gaepo-dong increased by 62.8%
in the industry The inverse tax crisis, which has become a reality centered on the area where the housing complex is located, is expected to spread throughout Seoul. The weak jeonse that occurred in the tenure site so far has ended once the tenure is completed, but the demand for jeonse is shrinking rapidly due to the phenomenon of jeonse avoidance due to a sudden increase in interest rates and house prices falling. In addition, as the extreme transaction cliff is prolonged, the phenomenon of landlords turning sales and sales into charter sales is added, resulting in more sales in the market.
According to the real estate data company Asil (apartment transaction price), from the 6th The number of apartments for sale in Seoul was 52,888, up 7.8% from a month ago (49,053). In particular, the number of listings in Gaepo-dong, Gangnam-gu, before moving in, increased by 62.8% to 2,050 from a month ago (1,259), and the number of chartered listings in Mapo-gu and Gangseo-gu, where’ r move-in underway, has soared by more than 20%. Even if we look at all districts in Seoul, △ Jung-gu 57.3% (495 cases → 779 cases) △ Dongjak-gu 20.7% (1546 cases → 1867 cases) △ Gangnam-gu 17.5% (6807 cases → 8001 cases). has increased by hundreds or even thousands.
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Compared to the beginning of August, right after the 2nd anniversary of the enforcement of the Welfare Act, the number of chartered apartments in Seoul increased by 68.3% (31,414 → 52,888).In Mapo-gu and Gangseo-gu, where the reverse charter crisis has recently become a reality, charter sales increased by 144.3% (970 → 2370 cases) and 121.8% (1045 → 2318 cases), respectively .
For this reason, the price of jeans falls more steeply than the price of a house. According to a survey by the Korea Real Estate Agency, the sale price of apartments in Seoul last week (on November 28) decreased by 0.56% from the previous week, but the price of jeonse decreased by 0.89%, and the decline was greater. This is the biggest drop since related statistics were compiled in May 2012.
The charter is stacked, but the move-in supply is pouring in next year… “The charter trend is getting longer”
The market expects that the reverse tax crisis due to the weakness of the jeonse market will continue until next year. According to Real Estate R114, the expected number of apartments (including rentals) in the metropolitan area next year is 178,274, similar to this year (180,397). In particular, the planned number of move-ins next year (12,402 households) in the Gangnam area, including Seocho-gu, Gangnam-gu, Songpa-gu, and Gangdong-gu, is more than three times that of this year (3,592). households).
If the decline in jeans prices continues, pressure will be put on the possibility that house prices will also struggle to escape the downward trend. The Korea Local Tax Research Institute recently published a report titled ‘Implications of the Reversal Jeonse Tax Crisis and Changes in Housing Prices; In the report, it was also predicted that “occupancy of new houses is expected to increase from the end of this year, which will promote reverse taxation and a decline in house prices.”
Park Won-gap, senior real estate specialist at KB Kookmin Bank “Because next year, a reduction in rental or sale prices is inevitable following high interest rates, the reverse tax crisis where the deposit is not returned to the tenant in time at the end of the lease contract will intensify,” he said. He said.anticipate that
Hyo-sun Kim, senior member of real estate at NH Nonghyup Bank, also said, “If there is a lot of moving in, the charter amount may increase in the short term, so the selling price and the price charter falls together, but the accumulated charter amount is not spent, so the charter market will remain weak.” “Especially next year, As there is a lot of moving in in Seoul, as well as in Gyeonggi and Incheon, the overall charter market will continue to be weak during the first half of next year.”
