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Indonesia’s New Capital: A‌ Looming Ghost Town?

The Ambition and the Warning

The Indonesian government envisions Nusantara, the Indonesian Capital City (IKN), as‍ a green, smart, and enduring city of the future. however, ‍international research and a recent​ report by The Guardian warn that this​ ambition could be disastrous ‍if ⁢Borneo’s forests are sacrificed and the new ⁣city remains sparsely populated.

The Guardian,in an article published on ‍October 29th,predicts IKN will become a ghost ⁣town. The primary concerns are a lack of population leading ⁤to a weak economic turnaround and a subsequent decrease in budget​ support for development.

Research on Planned‌ Capitals: Lessons from Around the World

Long before The Guardian‘s report, a thorough​ study on IKN was conducted by a⁢ joint research group from indonesia and several other countries. The research, led by Hoong Chen Teo et al., including Indonesian‌ researcher​ Saut Sagala, was published in 2020 in the scientific journal Land, published by ⁣the Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute ⁣(MDPI). The study is titled Environmental Impacts ⁣of Planned Capitals and Lessons for Indonesia’s New ⁤Capital.

The research analyzed the experiences of 12 countries that have previously built new capital ⁢cities: Abuja,Belmopan,Brasilia,Canberra,Dodoma,Islamabad,Lilongwe,Naypyidaw,Nur-Sultan (Astana),Sejong,Washington DC,and Yamoussoukro.

Patterns of Capital City Development

Using spatial analysis based on night satellite imagery (DMSP-OLS and VIIRS) from 1992-2018, the research identified two distinct patterns in the ⁢development of new capital cities.

The first pattern demonstrates rapid growth in ‍the initial stages,within the first 5-120 years,extending a radius of 10-30 km from the city center. Subsequently,​ the second pattern reveals ‌a slowdown in growth, shifting from extensification‌ (outward expansion) to intensification (increased density and economic