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Indonesia’s New Capital: A Looming Ghost Town?

The Ambition and the Warning

The Indonesian government envisions Nusantara, the Indonesian Capital City (IKN), as‍ a green, smart, and enduring city of the future. however, ‍international research and a recent report by The Guardian warn that this ambition could be disastrous ‍if ⁢Borneo’s forests are sacrificed and the new ⁣city remains sparsely populated.

The Guardian,in an article published on ‍October 29th,predicts IKN will become a ghost ⁣town. The primary concerns are a lack of population leading ⁤to a weak economic turnaround and a subsequent decrease in budget support for development.

Research on Planned Capitals: Lessons from Around the World

Long before The Guardian‘s report, a thorough study on IKN was conducted by a⁢ joint research group from indonesia and several other countries. The research, led by Hoong Chen Teo et al., including Indonesian researcher Saut Sagala, was published in 2020 in the scientific journal Land, published by ⁣the Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute ⁣(MDPI). The study is titled Environmental Impacts ⁣of Planned Capitals and Lessons for Indonesia’s New ⁤Capital.

The research analyzed the experiences of 12 countries that have previously built new capital ⁢cities: Abuja,Belmopan,Brasilia,Canberra,Dodoma,Islamabad,Lilongwe,Naypyidaw,Nur-Sultan (Astana),Sejong,Washington DC,and Yamoussoukro.

Patterns of Capital City Development

Using spatial analysis based on night satellite imagery (DMSP-OLS and VIIRS) from 1992-2018, the research identified two distinct patterns in the ⁢development of new capital cities.

The first pattern demonstrates rapid growth in ‍the initial stages,within the first 5-120 years,extending a radius of 10-30 km from the city center. Subsequently, the second pattern reveals a slowdown in growth, shifting from extensification (outward expansion) to intensification (increased density and economic