IMF Cuts Russia’s 2025 Economic Forecast Again
- The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday onc again lowered its forecast for Russia's economic growth in 2025, projecting an expansion of just 0.6% even as it raised its...
- The revision marks a 0.3 percentage-point downgrade from the IMF's July estimate of 0.9% GDP growth and represents the second-sharpest cut among major economies after Canada.In April, the...
- The IMF maintained its forecasts of 1% GDP growth for Russia in 2026 and 1.1% in 2030.
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IMF Lowers Russia’s 2025 Economic Growth Forecast to 0.6%
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The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday onc again lowered its forecast for Russia’s economic growth in 2025, projecting an expansion of just 0.6% even as it raised its global outlook.
The revision marks a 0.3 percentage-point downgrade from the IMF’s July estimate of 0.9% GDP growth and represents the second-sharpest cut among major economies after Canada.In April, the institution had projected annual growth of 1.5% for Russia before lowering it this summer.
The IMF maintained its forecasts of 1% GDP growth for Russia in 2026 and 1.1% in 2030. that underscores the steep slowdown from Russia’s 4.3% GDP growth in 2024, which had been fueled by heavy wartime spending.
Diverging Projections: IMF vs. Russian Government
Russia’s official projections remain more upbeat. The Economic Development Ministry expects growth of 1% this year and 1.3% in 2026, followed by an acceleration to around 2.5-2.8% later in the decade.
The Central Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1-2% in 2025 and up to 2.5% by 2028.
Analysis: the discrepancy between the IMF and Russian government forecasts highlights differing assessments of the impact of sanctions,geopolitical factors,and domestic economic policies. The IMF’s projections are often viewed as more conservative and independent, while Russian government forecasts may be influenced by political considerations.
Rising Inflation Concerns
At the