Inside the Mind of a Former Croatia Ambassador: The West’s Fear of Russia’s Fury in the Event of Defeat

Former ambassador in Moscow and foreign policy analyst Božo Kovačević spoke in favor N1 about the current situation in Ukraine, about the “plan for victory” of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and the reluctance of the West to allow Ukraine to target targets in Russia with long-range weapons.

Božo Kovačević believes that Zelenski sincerely believes in what he says.

“With the action at Kursk, he showed the weaknesses of the Russian army, and I believe he really believed that if Ukraine had the ability to operate more forcefully deep in Russian territory, it would force Russia to enchant.” But its allies, including the US and the UK, actually fear Russia’s response to a possible military defeat. The United States fears Russia’s nuclear response to defeat in a conventional war, and that is the difference between Zelensky and his Western allies,” he said.

Zelenski’s logic is very clear, Kovačević believes. At one point, Russia declared that Finland and Sweden had joined NATO a red line that it would not cross. However, when those two countries joined NATO, he did not respond. “Based on that, Zelensky comes to the conclusion that Russia does not really have red lines and that now is the moment for Ukraine, with the generous help of the West, to defeat Russia and start negotiations from the position of a winner,” he n specify.

“Zelensky and Putin have the same problem”

But it seems, adds Kovačević, that neither political leaders nor a large number of analysts in the West believe that this is possible.

“Basically, the behavior of the West is conditioned by the fear of the possible use of nuclear weapons, and this is where the position of the West and Zelenski diverges. The thing is that Western leaders are taking into account the mood of their public opinion, and in an increasing number of countries it is moving in the direction of reducing support for Ukraine. On the other hand, Volodymyr Zelensky expects even more support from the West, so now his position is very problematic and he is making desperate efforts. It is not possible to predict whether it will succeed at the moment, considering all the circumstances mentioned”, explains Kovačević.

Critical situation

Kovačević estimates that the situation is crucial for both of them.

“Until now, Putin has counted on the fact that the West can control Zelensky and prohibit him from attacking targets inside Russia. However, with the action in Kursk and a series of attacks on Russian energy resources, Zelensky showed that he is ready to make autonomous decisions. And if he is successful in this regard, the West cannot stop its support for Ukraine. Therefore, both sides are forced to take actions that cannot be predicted in advance”, he adds.

In the West, Kovačević said, the fear of a nuclear war with Russia prevails, and Putin miscalculated, thinking that Ukraine would not be able to attack Russia on its territory.

“Zelensky believes that he can quickly defeat Russia, but this requires a much greater military effort than Ukraine is capable of. It is possible that there will be some political upheaval in Russia which would lead to Putin being removed from power. But even if it were to happen, it does not guarantee that someone who would give up territorial aspirations towards Ukraine will come to power in Moscow. If they removed Putin, they would remove him because he was not successful,” Kovačević said.

Zelensky and Vladimir Putin, he said, have the same problem. Both of them need a military migration to end the war.

“We know that Putin does not dare to call for a move because he won 80 percent of support in the elections by promising that there would be no move. And in order to be able to maintain the current intensity of the war, he would have to declare migration. “Also, if Zelensky was able to protect what is under the control of the Ukrainian authorities, he would have to call for the evacuation and force of those who left the country to return and take part in the war,” he said.