【Macro News】
1. The US dollar index rose 1.5% to 109.85 points, recording its biggest one-day percentage increase since March 2020, but still below the 20-year peak of 110.79 points hit last week. After the release of the inflation data, the index rose from a decline.
2. The US Department of Labor said the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.1% in August after being flat in July. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a drop of 0.1 percent. Fed officials will meet next Tuesday and Wednesday, and inflation is now well above the Fed’s 2% target.
3. The special work of guaranteeing the transfer of buildings in China is done in an orderly manner. The national government strives to achieve the goal of stabilizing land prices, asking house prices, and stabilizing expectations; improve the link mechanism between the four elements of people, houses, land and money, to decide houses by people, land by houses, Paying for the house. In terms of guaranteeing the delivery of buildings, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, together with the Ministry of Finance, the People’s Bank of China and other relevant departments, announced special measures last month to support cities in need in promoting construction. and carry out residential projects that have been sold late and difficult to carry out through special loans from policy banks Currently, the special work is being done in an orderly manner.
4. On September 14, the China Automobile Association released a brief analysis of the automobile export situation in August. According to the statistics and analysis of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in August 2022, the export of automobiles reached an all-time high again, surpassing 300,000 for the first time in history. In August 2022, 308,000 vehicles were exported, an increase of 6.2% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 65%.
【Industry News】:
1.[Mae Hindustan Copper yn bwriadu cynyddu cynhyrchiant copr fwy na 3 gwaith yn y 7-8 mlynedd nesaf! ]Foreign news on 12 September, Hindustan Copper Co, Ltd (HCL) is considering increasing its annual copper ore production to 12.2 million tonnes by fiscal 2029, the first phase of its expansion. HCL’s copper ore production in fiscal 2022 is 3.57 million tonnes. The state sector said HCL plans to increase its mining capacity from current ore production levels to 12.2 million tonnes per annum in the first phase over the next 7-8 years.
2.[Mae’r dyfynbris diweddaraf yn dal i gael ei ystyried yn rhy isel, ac efallai na fydd Rio Tinto yn gallu rheoli’r mwynglawdd copr anferth ym Mongolia]On September 10, although the mining giant Rio Tinto raised its quotation, its plan to try to control the giant Mongolian copper mine is still failing. Last week, Rio Tinto agreed to buy a 49 percent stake in Canadian miner Turquoise Hill Resources for $3.3 billion (C$43 per share). Rio Tinto already owns 51% of Turquoise Mountain and is buying the remaining 49% in order to gain more control of the Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold mine.
【Future level】todayShanghai CopperWeak and volatile, the decline was evident in the day. The main month 2210 contract opened at 62,920 yuan/ton, and closed at 62,280 yuan/ton in daily trading, down 880 yuan/ton, or 1.39% .The US CPI in August was above market expectations, which increased the market’s expectation of aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, which made the market return to the logic of trading negative interest rate hikes again.
【Attitudes on the spot】According to ccmn data, on September 14, the spot 1# copper transaction price in the Yangtze River was reported at 63310-63350 yuan / ton, down 660 yuan / ton; premium 160-200 premium, down 270 yuan / ton. In the spot market, the spot premium fell by half, and the holders of the goods had a strong willingness to exchange for cash, and the receivers bought mostly at bargain prices.
【Property list】On 14 September, the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper inventory fell by 625 tonnes to 103,025 tonnes, a decrease of 0.60%; on 14 September, Shanghai Futures Exchange copper futures warehouse receipts were 3,224 tonnes, unchanged from the previous day. ;
As of September 12, 2022, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 62,700 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from September 5 and a decrease of 7,500 tons from September 8; Shanghai inventory was 50,200 tonnes, down 7,700 from September 5. tonnes, down 3,100 tonnes compared to September 8; Guangdong inventory was 8,300 tonnes, down 7,900 tonnes compared to September 5, and 1,500 tonnes compared to September 8.
【Supply】A Chilean copper mine is disturbed, and Indonesia bans the export of raw copper; the domestic TC price rises, and the upstream spot supply is free; the smelting price has fallen, driving smelting profits to decline, and the release of refined copper may slow supply; the inflow of imported copper will affect the spot supply market, and the domestic limit will be limited. Electricity has recovered, and electrolytic copper has essentially returned to the market. Overall, short-term supply pressures have eased, but overall inventory is still at historically low levels.
【Requirements】Affected by high copper prices, demand is still slow, and real estate has not recovered, so copper consumption is clearly being dragged down. The data was better than market expectations, which boosted the use of copper, but the use was still significantly weaker than the same period in previous years.
Comprehensive analysis, Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly today, closing down 880 yuan, or 1.39% Last night, the US published inflation data that exceeded market expectations The market was pessimistic about the pace of Fed rate hikes subsequent weaker. According to Guotai Junan Futures, due to the higher than expected US CPI data in August, the logic of Peak inflation transactions has been repeated again, and the recovery of risk sentiment has also interfered with the support for copper prices have weakened, and the market has returned to the negative macro side again. Copper prices say goodbye to strength. Short-term macro, interest rate hikes and fundamental games are playing a game Today, Shanghai copper is proving’ r bottom support.
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