The deportation pact with Rwanda still dominates British domestic politics. Before Christmas, Sunak was able to prevent a rebellion by the right wing of his Conservatives. Now it’s a showdown.
At the start of the election year, the “psychodrama” is back in the Conservative Party. In the dispute over the toughest possible migration policy, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is facing strong winds from within his own ranks.
Dozens of MPs from the right wing of the party supported two amendments intended to tighten the asylum law on Tuesday evening, against the wishes of their own government. Although they were unsuccessful, commentators spoke of a massive rebellion.
The right-wing emphasizes that only particularly tough action will help the Tories make up the huge gap in the polls to the social democratic Labor Party. If at least 28 Tory MPs vote against the draft in the evening, the law will fail – and Sunak would be plunged into a serious crisis.
Critics are outraged
This is about the conservative government’s plan to send irregularly entered migrants to Rwanda without examining their asylum applications and regardless of their origin. They should ask for asylum in the East African state, which critics accuse of human rights violations. A return to Great Britain is not possible. To this end, Rwanda should be declared a safe third country by law. A further judicial review citing human rights in Great Britain should be ruled out.
Critics of the project are outraged, including the United Nations refugee agency. They accuse the government of violating commitments to protect asylum seekers in plans to deter migrants from traveling across the English Channel in small boats. Sunak denies all allegations. The voters want to solve the problem once and for all. Immigration to Great Britain has recently increased significantly. This is also due to British migration policy since Brexit, so since then London has no longer had any readmission agreements with the EU.
The Rwanda pact was once thought up by then Prime Minister Boris Johnson – according to critics, only to distract from the “Partygate” scandal. Opponents of the project point out that the government has already paid several million pounds to Rwanda without anyone arriving there. The Labor Party speaks of a political trick. The exact date for the British general election has not yet been set, but a vote is expected to take place in the autumn.
Resistance within our own ranks
For Sunak, the agreement with the authoritarian President Paul Kagame is a central building block in his promise to reduce the number of migrants. On Tuesday, Sunak’s spokesman confirmed that the first deportation flights should take off by spring. In order to speed up proceedings, judges should be appointed. However, experts cannot imagine that the plan will work.
Above all, Sunak must overcome resistance within his own ranks. Prominent right-wing conservatives such as former Home Secretary Suella Braverman and former Migration Secretary Robert Jenrick announced that they would vote against the law if Sunak did not respond to their requests for changes.
The right wing of the conservatives demands that an appeal to international courts such as the European Court of Human Rights, which prevented a deportation flight at the last second in June 2022, should no longer be possible. Otherwise there would be too many loopholes. But Sunak and the moderate forces reject this – for fear of breaking international agreements. They claim that this is already the strictest legislation in history.
Big pressure for Sunak
The public pressure on Sunak is great; a recent poll commissioned by the Telegraph predicted heavy losses for his Tories and named the migration issue as a central issue. On Tuesday evening, party deputy chief executives Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke-Smith resigned from their posts to join the rebels. Analysts spoke of a “civil war” within the Tory party. “It looks like it’s going to be chaotic and cause damage,” commented Sky News.
Tuesday evening’s voting figures are likely to increase concerns in Downing Street. Sunak desperately needs success at the start of the election year. A defeat is likely to significantly weaken his authority. But even if he wins the Rwanda vote, the dispute within his party would be far from over.
