Israel, which had threatened to take “painful revenge” after receiving its first ever attack on its homeland from Iran on the 13th (local time), struck Iran in the early morning of the 19th. Today is the 85th birthday of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran and the ‘longest ruler’ of the Middle East, who has served since 1989. There was an interpretation that the intention was to weaken Iran psychologically by informing it that Israel has the core of Iran’s power in mind.
The US confirmed the Israeli air strike through the media, but neither Israel nor Iran issued an official response. Analysis has been made that the two countries are trying to avoid an all-out conflict, but there are also comments that rising tensions through exchanging attacks and counter-attacks could lead to disaster.
● USA “Israeli missile hits Iranian target”
Fireworks explode over Isfahan, a city located about 340 km south of Iran’s capital, Tehran. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard released this video and explained that it was fireworks related to a military operation. Isfahan is known as the production center of the Iran Aircraft Manufacturing Industry Corporation, which produces fighter jets and unmanned aerial vehicles (drones). Iranian Revolutionary Guard Telegram
Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency said three explosions were heard around the military airport northwest of Isfahan, Iran. According to Iran’s IRNA news agency, air defense bombing was carried out at major air bases where F-14 Tomcat fighter jets imported from the United States were used before the Islamic Revolution in 1979.
The exact extent of the damage from this airstrike is unknown. The Fars News Agency only reported that it was “an object that could be targeted by military radar” and that “the windows of several offices in the area were broken.” A senior US official explained to CNN, “Israel avoided civilians and nuclear facilities and targeted military facilities.”
This attack occurred after Israel bombed the Iranian consulate in Syria on the 1st and Iran retaliated for its first ever attack on the Israeli mainland on the 13th. Bloomberg News pointed out that Isfahan was one of the places Iran used as a missile launch site during the air strike on the 13th. This suggests that Israel may have hit the source of the Iranian attack.
The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office refused to answer questions about whether Israel was behind the Isfahan attack, the local daily Times of Israel reported. However, the US NBC broadcast cited a source and said, “Israeli authorities are assessing the extent of the damage caused to Iran.”
The Iranian authorities even seemed to downplay the fact of the attack. Hossein Dalian, a spokesman for Iran’s National Aeronautics and Space Administration, claimed on social media He then claimed, “Three unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) flew in, but the air defense network managed to shoot them down,” adding , “The enemy operation ended in ignominious failure.”
Iran’s state broadcaster IRIB also released a news video of a broadcast reporter on the roof of a building in Isfahan saying, “The city is safe and people are living normally.” Iranian state television and others denied that Iran had been attacked outside its borders. Bloomberg News analyzed, “Perhaps it is a matter of pride to downplay the fact that Iran was attacked from the outside.”
● “Iran’s next response cannot be predicted.”
The eyes of the international community are focused on whether the retaliatory war between the two countries will continue or whether it will end here. First of all, major officials in Iran and Israel are showing moves to minimize the impact of this incident. Foreign media also evaluate this attack as ‘limited revenge’. The New York Times analyzed, “The quiet initial response to the attack suggests that Iran and Israel want to avoid escalation.” Retired US Army Major General Mark McCauley told CNN that Israel was sending a ‘calculated message’ to Iran telling it not to attack anymore.
But the attack came just hours after Iran’s Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, told CNN that Israel would respond “immediately and at the highest level” if it took further military action against Iran. In addition, after the attack, there was even criticism in Israel that ‘the intensity of revenge is weak.’ The far-right Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben Gvir, posted a comment on X on this day: “It (revenge) was weak.” This is why there is speculation that this attack may not be the end of the revenge war between the two countries.
In particular, if the specific extent and background of the damage is revealed, the possibility that it could escalate into an all-out war cannot be ruled out. Concerns arose in the international community. The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, stressed, “All possible steps must be taken to curb the escalation of the conflict.” The day before, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres urged “maximum restraint,” saying, “One miscalculation, misunderstanding, or mistake can lead to an unimaginable situation.”
Correspondent Hong Jeong-su hong@donga.com
Paris = Correspondent Jo Eun-ah achim@donga.com
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