80% of the hereditary succession of politicians
Nihon Keizai Shimbun 25 years of data analysis
Hereditary candidates win 60% of their first run…
Non-hereditary general candidates won 10% of their first challenge
Among famous Japanese politicians, there are many ‘hereditary politicians’ who are from generations of politicians. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is also a hereditary politician who was elected to the House of Representatives in Hiroshima for the third generation after his grandfather and father. In this photo, Prime Minister Kishida holds a press conference on the dissolution of the House of Representatives at the Prime Minister’s Residence in Tokyo on the 14th. Tokyo AFP = Yonhap News
As a result of analyzing the results of the Japanese House of Representatives elections (general elections) over the past 25 years, it was found that the election rate of ‘hereditary politicians’ reached 80%. The data proves the saying that “Japan elections are governed by ‘three bans’ such as ‘ground’, ‘signboard’ and ‘bag’. Jiban refers to organizations such as supporters, signboard refers to popularity, and bag refers to financial power, but hereditary politicians have an overwhelming advantage as they can inherit the ‘third class’ from their parents.
The Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported on the 17th that it was found as a result of analyzing the database of the House of Representatives elections held since 1996 based on data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. As a result of defining a ‘hereditary candidate’ as a person whose parents or close relatives have experience as a member of the National Assembly and have taken over some or all of the local base from them, 13% of all candidates were counted as hereditary candidates. Their odds of winning fell from the constituency, but reached 80%, including those who were revived as proportional representatives. On the other hand, the remaining 87% of non-hereditary candidates had a win rate of only 30%.
Hereditary candidates inherit not only the organization but also the ‘signboard’, that is, the recognition. If you hold a key position in the government or a political party after serving as a member of the National Assembly for a long time, your recognition will increase and this point will be inherited. As a result of Nihon Keizai’s analysis, the win rate for political rookies is 14%, but after being elected once, the win rate soared to over 60% when re-elected. If it is above the 5th line, it is over 80%. It should be noted here that there is a difference between hereditary candidates and non-hereditary candidates. Even if the candidates for hereditary succession are newcomers, they have already gained recognition due to the halo effect, so a whopping 60% of them are elected.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who took office on the 4th of this month, is also the third-generation member of the House of Representatives. Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, son of former Foreign Minister Shintaro Abe and grandson of former Prime Minister Nobusuke Kishi, former Minister of Administrative Reform Taro Kono, son of former House of Representatives Speaker Yohei Kono, and former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi Politicians have many hereditary legislators.
Meanwhile, the influence of ‘bag’, which means financial power, has also been proven. As a result of calculating the expenditure per voter for each candidate, the win rate for candidates with 0 to 10 yen was 4%, but it gradually increased to 35% for 10 to 20 yen, 57% for 20 to 30 yen, and 62% for 30 to 40 yen. The newspaper pointed out, “Politics cannot change unless there is an environment where diverse talents can enter the political realm.”
Tokyo = Jinju Choi correspondent pariscom@hankookilbo.com
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