June Inflation Forecast: 3-4% – Finance Ministry
- Pakistan's consumer price index (CPI) inflation is projected to remain between 3% and 4% in June, according to the finance ministry's latest economic outlook report.
- In May, the year-on-year consumer inflation rate reached 3.46%, the highest since December, signaling a potential rebound after months of decline, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.
- Awais Ashraf, director of research at AKD securities, confirmed that the ministry's projections align with their own expectations.
Stay informed on Pakistan’s economic health: The Finance Ministry projects a June consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate between 3% and 4%, offering a glimpse into the nation’s financial stability. This report also examines how inflation trends influenced May’s 3.46% year-on-year rate, the highest since December. Positive signals emerge from large-scale manufacturing (LSM) and an beneficial external account. Increased private sector lending signifies growing investor confidence. Awais Ashraf, from AKD securities, echoes the ministry’s expectations, forecasting similar results. News Directory 3 provides insightful, current financial news relevant to Pakistan. Discover the effects of rising exports and agricultural improvements on Pakistan’s economy, which is anticipating a 2.7% GDP growth. discover what’s next for Pakistan’s financial path.
Pakistan Inflation Rate Expected to Hold Steady in June
updated June 30, 2025
Pakistan’s consumer price index (CPI) inflation is projected to remain between 3% and 4% in June, according to the finance ministry’s latest economic outlook report. The report highlights positive trends in large-scale manufacturing (LSM) and an improving external account position, contributing to a stable inflation rate.
In May, the year-on-year consumer inflation rate reached 3.46%, the highest since December, signaling a potential rebound after months of decline, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. The finance ministry anticipates this inflation forecast to continue into June.
Awais Ashraf, director of research at AKD securities, confirmed that the ministry’s projections align with their own expectations. “We projected the inflation to remain at 3.2% in June,” Ashraf said.
The finance ministry’s report also indicates a positive outlook for LSM, driven by encouraging trends in cement dispatches and automobile sales. Car, SUV, pickup, and van sales reached 14,762 units in May, a 35% year-on-year increase and a 39% month-on-month rise.
Though,LSM showed mixed results in April,with a 2.3% year-on-year growth but a 3.2% month-on-month contraction. Despite this, the report notes that increased lending to private sector businesses suggests rising production and improved investor confidence.
The country’s external account position continues to improve, supported by rising remittances and exports. The finance ministry expects this trend to continue throughout fiscal year 2025, maintaining a current account surplus.
The agriculture sector is also expected to contribute to economic growth, with increased mechanization and the use of quality seeds projected to boost output. Imports of agricultural machinery rose by 10% to $69.2 million between July 2024 and April 2025.
What’s next
Looking ahead, the government aims for a 2.7% GDP growth in the current fiscal year, though this remains below the targeted 3.6%. Continued focus on exports, remittances, and agricultural improvements will be crucial to achieving this goal.