Economic news 10:19 am 2023-12-29
Kasikorn Bank (KBANK) sees the movement of the baht next week (2-5 January 2024) at the level of 33.80-34.50 baht / dollar from the market closing on Thursday, 28 December 2023 at the level of 34.16 Baht / Dollar, with factors important things that need to be monitored include the direction of foreign capital and the inflation rate in December. 66 from Thailand
Although important US economic figures include the ISM/PMI index for the manufacturing and service sectors. ADP private sector employment data, non-agricultural employment figures and unemployment rate for December. 66 The number of job openings and labor turnover rates in November. 66 Minutes of the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting on 12-13 December 66 and the number of people applying for weekly unemployment benefits.
In addition, the market is still waiting to follow the PMI index for the manufacturing and service sectors in December. 66 from China, the Eurozone and England and inflation rate in December. 66 from the Eurozone as well.
As for the baht in the last week of 2023, it reached its strongest level in 5 months at 34.10 baht / dollar, with the baht and most currencies in the region still appreciating amid selling pressure for the dollar. and a downward adjustment of US bond yields Speculation about the possibility of a cut in the Federal Reserve’s policy interest rate in 2024 after the US PCE Price Index and the PCE Core Price Index slowed more than the expected in November.
In addition, the strengthening of the baht is also in line with the increase in the price of gold in the world market and the net purchasing power of Thai stocks and bonds by foreigners as well.
Regarding the status of foreign investors’ investment portfolio between 25-28 December 2023, foreign investors net bought Thai stocks and bonds at 3,175 million baht and 4,651 million baht, respectively.
* The baht strengthened at the end of 2023 by 1.3% from the closing level at the end of 2022.
For the general picture in 2023, the baht moved fluctuating in the range of 32.57-37.24 baht / dollar before closing the market at the end of 2023 at 34.16 baht / dollar, appreciating 1.3% of the closing level at the end of 2022 at 34.61 baht/dollar The baht strengthened at the start of the year due to concerns about the US recession. and the possibility of an interest rate cut by the Fed
However, the baht depreciated after US economic and labor market data remained strong and inflation remained above the Fed’s target. This causes the Fed to continue raising policy interest rates until the FOMC meeting in July 2023, along with the uncertainty of domestic political factors and the slow recovery of the Thai economy. The baht recovered again in the last quarter of 2023 amid expectations that the US policy interest rate would have reached its highest point at 5.25-5.50% and there is a chance that the Fed will reduce interest rates in 2024. In addition, the baht additional positive factors from the increase in gold prices in the world market as well.
By InfoQuest News Agency (29 Dec ’23)
Tags: Forex, baht value, exchange rate, baht
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