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Korean General Election Poll Results: The Impact of Approval Ratings and Party Support

“I couldn’t decide which party to support” 35%
52% to judge the regime versus 48% to judge the opposition party
“Han Dong-hoon’s approval rating is 41%”
“Lee Jae-myung should resign” 57%

Lee Jae-myung (left), leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, and Chairman of the Emergency Response Committee of the People’s Power Party Han Dong-hoon are taking a commemorative photo at the representative office of the Democratic Party on the 29th last month. Journalist Choi Joo-yeon

29% of respondents said they will vote for the People Power Party candidate in the April 10 general election. The answer that they would vote for the Democratic Party candidate was also within the 25% margin of error, making it difficult to distinguish between the two parties. As expected, the results were similar, with 52% supporting the government/ruling party’s theory of judgment and 48% supporting the opposition party’s theory of judgment, while the number of respondents supporting the “theory of simultaneous judgment” reached 22%. The regime judgment theory, which has been dominant for a while, appears to have slowed down due to expectations following the appearance of Emergency Committee Chairman Han Dong-hoon and weariness over Rep. Lee Jae-myung’s move , but unexpected negative news such as Kim Kun-hee’s Special Prosecution Law is expected to be a decisive variable in future votes.

The political party to vote for in general elections, proportional representation, National Assembly elections. Graphics = Reporter Kang Jun-gu

“I couldn’t decide which party to support” 35%

According to a New Year’s Eve poll conducted by Hankook Ilbo and commissioned by Hankook Research, 29% of respondents chose the candidate of the People Power Party as the party’s candidate to support in the general election ballot. This figure is less than 1 in 3, but the response that they would vote for the Democratic candidate also showed no significant difference at 25%. On the other hand, 35% of respondents said they hadn’t decided yet, exceeding support on both sides. Depending on the choices they make in the general election with 100 days to go, the joys and sorrows of the two parties are expected to be contrasting. The response that they would vote for the Justice Party candidate remained at 1%, along with the Progressive Party.

In the voting for the election of proportional representatives, the People Power Party was slightly ahead. The People Power Party was the most popular with 26%, followed by the Democratic Party with 18%. The pan-opposition group includes the “New Reform United Party” (5%) and the Justice Party (3%), which include the Basic Income Party, the Social Democratic Party and the Open Democratic Party, and the “New Choice” (2%) led by former MP Geum Tae-seop and MP Ryu Ho-jung. This can be interpreted as the effect of dispersed support. The share of interviewees who declare that they have not yet decided on proportional representation is high, equal to 33%.

The political party to vote for in general elections, proportional representation, National Assembly elections. Graphics = Reporter Kang Jun-gu

52% would judge the regime, 48% would judge the opposition party… 22% would judge both.

Regarding the electoral structure, more than half of the respondents (52%) support the “government judgment theory” against the Yoon Seok-yeol government and the ruling party. However, support for the “opposition judgment theory,” which holds that the opposition Democratic Party should be judged, was also strong (48%). The reason why there is no clear trend on the one hand is that the percentage of the “simultaneous judgment theory”, according to which both the ruling and opposition parties must be judged, has reached 22%. Jeong Han-ul, director of the Korea People Research Institute, predicted: “At the same time, judges will become voters.”

President Yoon Seok-yeol performs an uppercut ceremony during the Youth Day ceremony held at Busan Cinema Center in Haeundae-gu, Busan on September 14 last year. Provided by the Office of the President

Regarding President Yoon Seok-yeol’s state administration, 58% of respondents responded negatively, surpassing the 35% who responded positively. The results are not much different from the opinion poll conducted by Dong-A Ilbo and Korea Research on the first anniversary of President Yoon’s inauguration in May last year (35% positive, 60% negative). The most common factor for good government administration was “the result of efforts to strengthen the ROK-US alliance and Korea-Japan relations” (41%), while the top factor for poor government work was “staff working as a prosecutor and placed emphasis on personal relationships” (31%).

Support for political parties was limited to 34% for the People Power Party and 33% for the Democratic Party. The Justice Party, the Basic Income Party and New Choice each won 2%. “I do not support any political party” was 22%.

“Han Dong-hoon has the effect of increasing approval ratings” 41%, “Lee Jae-myung should resign” 57%

Opinions on the signals from the ruling and opposition parties were mixed. When asked what impact the launch of Han Dong-hoon’s emergency committee would have on the People Power Party’s approval rating, 41 percent said it would increase it. Thirty-three percent said it would not have much impact and 17% said it would have little effect. When asked about the pros and cons of calling for CEO Lee Jae-myung’s resignation, more than half responded with 57% in favor. Opposition was 36%.

When deciding on political parties and candidates for the general election, 51% of respondents said they would consider the law on Special Prosecutor Kim Kun-hee, and 48% said they would take into account the results of the trial against the deputy Lee Jae-myung. This means that both ruling and opposition parties face judicial risks.

Seongtaek Lee Reporter highnoon@hankookilbo.com

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