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Leap Year Effect: Impact on Births, Weddings, and Deaths in February

Fewer births in leap years with one more day in February

More weddings and more deaths than usual

According to some analyses, behind the unusually large number of record highs and lows recorded in the statistics in February this year there was to some extent a “leap year effect”. It is analyzed that the number of deaths increased due to the extra day and the phenomenon of avoiding childbirth in leap months also played a role.

In fact, this February is a leap year with 29 days instead of 28. Leap years, which occur once every four years, occur because Earth’s rotation period and orbital period don’t align perfectly. A leap year is a leap year in which every four years an extra day is added to February to correct errors.

There are some special perceptions about leap years. A representative example is that childbirth should be avoided as much as possible on February 29 of a leap year. Children born on February 29 tend to avoid childbirth because they can only celebrate their birthday once every four years.

According to the Office for National Statistics, the number of births on February 25 this year was 19,362, falling below the 20,000 mark for the first time since 1981, when relevant statistics began to be compiled. The same goes for 2020, the latest leap year. The number of births in February 2020 was 22,854, a sharp decline of 11.3% compared to the same month last year. The number of children born in February 2016 decreased by 2.2% compared to the previous year. Although the influence of low birth rates is absolute, a leap year influence is also believed to exist.

There is also a perception that it is good to get married in February of a leap year. The number of marriages in February 2016 was 22,500, up 7.7% compared to the same month the previous year. Even in February 2020 it increased by 5% compared to the previous year. However, the number of marriages in February this year decreased by 5% compared to the same month of the previous year, which is interpreted to mean that the influence of the trend of non-marriages and late marriages was greater than influence of leap years. . The analysis suggests that the fact that there were fewer days than usual for marriage registration due to the Lunar New Year holiday which falls in February also had an impact.

Leap years also affect the number of deaths. This means that because there is one more day in February than in a normal year, in a leap year deaths are counted for one more day, which is a factor that increases the number of deaths. The number of deaths in February 2016 was 24,600, an increase of 6% compared to the same month last year. The number of deaths in February 2020 was 25,419, an increase of 10.9% compared to the same month last year. The number of deaths in February this year was 29,977, an increase of 9.6% compared to the same period a year ago, the highest in February.

The strong aging of the population is believed to be the main factor in the increase in the number of deaths in February in leap years, but the Office for National Statistics explains that leap years also have an impact.

An official from the Office for National Statistics said: “Due to ageing, the number of deaths among people aged 85 and over has increased,” adding: “There is also the February effect which is extended by one day due to leap years.” There is also a myth that ghosts are less active during leap years, so it is good to move or make repairs to the house.

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