The debate over the value of higher education is evolving, shifting from a focus on access to a demand for demonstrable economic return. The Lumina Foundation, a leading advocate for increasing post-secondary attainment, is attempting to quantify that return with its annual A Stronger Nation report, released this week. The report establishes a baseline for a new metric – ‘credentials of value’ – and sets an ambitious goal for 2040.
Currently, data shows that 43.6 percent of U.S. Adults aged 25 to 64 in the labor force hold a degree or credential – including certificates and industry certifications – that translates to earnings exceeding those of individuals with only a high school diploma. This figure represents a significant increase from , when only 39 percent of adults held such credentials, reflecting a broader expansion of post-secondary education and training.
Courtney Brown, vice president of strategic impact and planning at the Lumina Foundation, emphasized the changing expectations surrounding higher education. “People began asking not just if I can get a credential but is it actually going to lead to a better job with higher pay,” Brown said. “That shift is what really brings us to where we are today.”
Defining Value and Setting a New Goal
The Lumina Foundation’s latest report isn’t simply tracking credential attainment; it’s attempting to define which credentials actually deliver economic value. The foundation’s 2040 goal – that 75 percent of adults in the U.S. Labor force possess a degree or credential leading to economic prosperity – is specifically defined as earning at least 15 percent more than someone with only a high school diploma. This benchmark, Brown explained, provides a “clear, consistent way to move the conversation away from just opinions… to outcomes and real data.”
The foundation views the increase in credential attainment over the past decade as a success. “I would say for all intents and purposes it worked,” Brown stated, referring to the foundation’s previous goal of increasing degree attainment. “That represents millions more people with post–high school education and training than we actually saw a generation ago.” However, the new focus on ‘credentials of value’ acknowledges that simply increasing the number of credentials isn’t enough; quality and alignment with labor market needs are paramount.
Degree Types and Regional Disparities
The report highlights significant differences in economic outcomes based on the type of credential held. Bachelor’s and graduate degrees remain the most reliable pathways to higher earnings. Approximately 70 percent of adults with a bachelor’s degree earn at least 15 percent more than those with only a high school diploma, a figure that rises to roughly 80 percent for those with graduate or professional degrees.
Outcomes for associate degrees and shorter-term credentials are more variable. The report found that around 55 percent of individuals with a certification and 54 percent of those with an associate degree meet the 15 percent earnings benchmark. This disparity underscores the need to strengthen the quality and relevance of these credentials to current labor market demands.
Geographic variations are also pronounced. Several states and the District of Columbia exceed the national average in terms of adults holding high-quality degrees. Colorado (51.7 percent), Massachusetts (52.5 percent), and the District of Columbia (67.7 percent) lead the nation in this metric. Conversely, West Virginia (34.6 percent), Nevada (33.6 percent), and Puerto Rico (25.7 percent) have the lowest shares of adults with credentials delivering economic value.
The situation in Puerto Rico is particularly noteworthy. Despite having a relatively high degree-attainment rate (60.1 percent), the territory has the lowest share of adults earning above the 15 percent benchmark. Brown attributed this to lower overall income levels in Puerto Rico, suggesting that even with a degree, economic opportunities may be limited.
Addressing Misconceptions and Looking Ahead
Brown addressed a common misconception that degrees no longer pay off for students. “We see, especially for bachelor’s degrees, that they do for the majority of people provide at least that 15 percent,” she said. The data, she argues, points to a need for some credentials to better align with the demands of the modern economy.
The Lumina Foundation’s report isn’t framed as a critique of higher education, but rather as a call for progress and increased transparency. “I don’t see this as a story about education failing. I see it as a story about progress,” Brown concluded. “It’s a story about transparency and evolving expectations about what people are looking for and what they want to make sure they get.” The foundation’s data tool and its 2040 goal are intended to drive institutions and policymakers toward strengthening the connection between education and the labor market, ensuring that credentials truly deliver on the promise of economic opportunity.
