Market Trends and Investment Strategies

US Presidential Debate and Inflation Numbers

The recent US presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump has led to a slight shift in the dollar index, with Trump’s lead at 47.2% to 44.4%, according to an ABC NEWS POLL. However, a CNN poll indicates that Harris outperformed Trump by 63% to 37%, causing the dollar index to weaken by 0.31% and the baht to strengthen to 33.61 baht/US dollar.

Tonight, the latest US inflation numbers for August are expected to be lower than expected, which may stimulate the possibility of the Fed using strong measures to adjust interest rates to 0.50% at the meeting on September 18. The FED Watch Tool gives a weight of 66% who expect the Fed to adjust interest rates to 0.25% and a further 34% expect a 0.50% reduction.

The ECB meets on September 12 and is expected to reduce the policy interest rate by 0.25% to 4%, indicating a downward trend in interest rates in leading economies. Meanwhile, Thailand maintains interest rates at 2.5%, which is expected to stimulate the baht to strengthen and generate profits on both sides of the baht.

Market Outlook

The market is currently taking a break and waiting for another wave of a new base, but it may drop below 1,400 points. This afternoon, the SET INDEX is expected to hold support at 1,400-1,405 points.

Vayupak Mutual Fund is expected to start investing in the Thai stock market on October 1, which will be a force to support the market. Stocks previously held by Vayupak Fund with limited ESG ratings and technical downsides, such as PTT, MTC, GPSC, GULF, BGRIM, BCH, as well as stocks benefiting from the strong baht, TFG, and TVO, are expected to perform well.

Investment Strategies

ASL Guarantees suggests that the Thai stock market has fallen, which is considered pressure in terms of profit. To reduce the risk, investors should wait for domestic and international factors, including the two US presidential debates and reporting on US inflation numbers, which affect interest rate policy during the Fed meeting this month.

Global Securities suggests that the index is in line with regional markets and worries about flooding in the north region intensifying. The research department also sees speculation coming into small-medium stocks. In the afternoon, the market is still expected to fluctuate within a narrow range of 1,405-1,420 points.

Technical Analysis

The Gap Index has contracted, and selling pressure continues. During the day, focus on standing at the support level of 1,410/1,400 points, which should not be lower. Resistance levels are 1,420/1,438 points respectively.