Market on High Alert: Will PCE Announcement Spark a Rally or Sell-Off in New York Stocks

[서울=뉴스핌] Reporter Go In-won = Before the New York stock market opened on the 27th (local time), major stock index futures remained in the flat range. The market took a cautious breath before the publication of the personal consumption price expenditure (PCE) index, the most closely watched inflation indicator by the US Federal Reserve.

As of 8:25 am Eastern time, on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), E-mini S&P 500 futures were at 5,806.75, up 2.50 points (0.04%) from the previous day, and E-mini Dow futures were up 28.00 points (0.07%).

Trader on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) [사진=로이터 뉴스핌]

Although there are conflicting views on the size of the cut in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate at the upcoming November meeting, with a cut of 0.25 percentage points and a cut of 0.5 percentage points, investors are holding their breath for the results, believing that the results SNP to be. released today affects the pace of the Fed’s next interest rate cut I await.

In a preliminary Reuters survey, experts predicted that the PCE price index in August would rise by 2.3% compared to the same month last year, slowing from 2.5% in July.

As inflation in the US moves closer to the Federal Reserve’s price stabilization target of 2%, with the recently published consumer price index (CPI) in August reaching 2.5%, the lowest in 3 years and 6 month, the ‘big cut’ (basic interest rate of 0.5%) last week There is an opinion that there is more room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further, after starting to ‘break point’.

Strategists at ING Bank assessed that “the market has become less sensitive to inflation news as the Federal Reserve’s recent focus has shifted from prices to employment, even if (price figures) deviate somewhat from market consensus.”

The PCE price index is expected to be published at 8:30 am eastern time (9:30 pm Korean time) on this day, and after the opening, the University of Michigan end consumer sentiment index for September and comments from Director US Federal Reserve Michelle Bowman will also be released.

The day before, New York’s main stock market indexes closed higher. As economic indicators showed strength, expectations for a soft landing in the US economy were highlighted in the market, and Micron Technology’s strong performance confirmed the enthusiasm for the artificial intelligence (AI) theme, making it a connected week.

Last week (until the 21st), the number of new jobless claims for the week was the lowest in four months, and the confirmed gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter of the US was also the same as the temporary value issued. earlier, at an annual rate of 3.0% compared to the previous quarter. In a subsequent interview with CNBC, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen predicted that the US economy is on the path to a soft landing and that the policy interest rate will be lowered to a neutral level.

Even on a weekly basis, the three main New York stock market indexes are on the rise. The Dow and Nasdaq are expected to continue their upward trend for three consecutive weeks.

alibaba [사진=바이두]

Among the stocks in focus ahead of the open is American pharmaceutical company ▲Bristol Myers Squibb (stock name: BMY), whose stock price is up nearly 4%. The news that the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the company’s schizophrenia treatment drug ‘Covenphi’ on the 26th was good news.

Amid expectations of economic stimulus from the Chinese government, stock prices of Chinese companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange are rising. Stock prices of ▲Li Auto (LI) ▲Pinduoduo Holdings (PDD) ▲Alibaba (BABA) are rising in the 1-2% range.

Additionally, in response to a Reuters report that the Chinese government would ease restrictions on home purchases in Shanghai and Shenzhen as a measure to revive the real estate market, the world’s largest lithium company Albemarle (ALB) and mining company BHP Group (BHP) saw their stock prices also decreased by 1 ~ 1. It rises in the 3% range.

On the other hand, discount warehouse store ▲ Costco’s (COST) stock price is down 1% ahead of the open on news that fourth-quarter sales fell short of market expectations due to sluggish demand at member-only stores.

Server maker ▲Super Micro (SMCI) is down nearly 1% before the market opens today, following a 12% plunge the previous day on news that the US Department of Justice has begun an investigation into suspected account manipulation in the company.

US Treasury yields are falling amid expectations of further interest rate cuts. Currently, the 10-year maturity US Treasury bond interest rate is 3.771%, down 1.4bp (bp = 0.01% point) from the previous period. The 2-year interest rate, which is sensitive to policy interest rates, is 1.9bp behind at 3.606%. Bond interest rates move inversely to prices.

The US dollar remains flat. The dollar index, which shows the value of the dollar against six major currencies, remains unchanged from the battlefield at 100.52.

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed the possibility of a ceasefire with the armed Lebanese political faction Hezbollah on the 26th, and there are tensions that the armed conflict between the two sides will escalate into an all-out war.

koinwon@newspim.com