Metabolic Liver Disease to Affect 1.8 Billion People by 2050

An analysis of global health data indicates that metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) affected approximately 1.3 billion people worldwide in 2023. Projections suggest that the number of cases could rise to nearly 1.8 billion by 2050.

The findings were published in The Lancet Gastroenterology and Hepatology and drew upon data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023. The research highlights MASLD, a condition previously known as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), as one of the most rapidly growing liver conditions globally.

The 1.3 billion cases recorded in 2023 represent a 143 percent increase compared to 1990, when approximately 500 million people were living with the condition. This surge means that about one in six people, or 16 percent of the global population, are currently affected by MASLD.

Data from the study shows that the global prevalence rate reached 14,429 cases per 100,000 people in 2023, which is a 29 percent increase from 1990 levels.

Drivers of Disease Prevalence

Researchers identified several primary drivers contributing to the projected increase in cases. High blood sugar was cited as the leading driver of MASLD-related health problems, followed by high body mass index (BMI) and smoking.

The projected climb to 1.8 billion cases by 2050, a 42 percent increase from 2023, is attributed to a combination of global population growth and lifestyle factors. These include rising rates of obesity and increasing instances of metabolic disorders.

In low- and middle-income countries, the study flagged a growing incidence of the disease among younger adults. This trend is linked to rapid urbanization and associated lifestyle changes, including sedentary habits and poor dietary patterns.

Demographic and Regional Trends

The prevalence of MASLD varies significantly across different age groups and genders. The condition was found to be more common in men than in women.

While the highest prevalence rates were observed in older adults between the ages of 80 and 84, the largest total number of affected individuals were younger. Specifically, the highest numbers were seen in men aged 35 to 39 and women aged 55 to 59.

Geographically, certain regions report disproportionately higher prevalence rates. North Africa and West Asia, including the Middle East, are seeing higher rates of MASLD compared to other parts of the world.

Experts suggest these regional trends are closely linked to changing dietary habits, shifting lifestyles, and limited access to preventive healthcare in certain areas.

Disease Burden and Future Risks

Despite the sharp increase in the number of people living with MASLD, the overall disease burden has remained relatively stable. This burden is measured in years lost due to premature death, disability, or ill health.

The stability of the disease burden suggests that improvements in disease management and treatment may be enabling patients to live longer and healthier lives. Researchers noted that many cases are now being detected in earlier stages.

However, the expanding pool of patients presents a long-term risk. Researchers cautioned that the rising number of cases could lead to a higher incidence of severe complications in the coming years, including liver cancer and liver cirrhosis.

The findings underscore the necessity of treating MASLD as a major global health challenge. The study calls for increased awareness, timely interventions, and targeted policies to curb the long-term impact of the disease.

• Reinforcing prevention efforts to address obesity and blood sugar levels.
• Expanding screening efforts to detect the disease earlier.
• Enhancing treatment options for those already affected by liver disease.