Mexico’s Democratic Foundations: Is Sheinbaum’s Support Softening?

Mexico City – Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration is facing early signs of economic and political headwinds, as a recent legislative setback and softening support suggest the country’s ability to maintain economic stability while pursuing a more autocratic path may be waning. The narrative that Mexico could successfully navigate democratic erosion without damaging its economic foundations is now being challenged, according to a report by Guillermo Ortiz published by Project Syndicate on April 2, 2026.

The report highlights a rare legislative defeat for Sheinbaum in March as a key indicator of potential trouble. For much of the past decade, Mexico has maintained macroeconomic stability despite a concurrent centralization of power that has eroded democratic institutions. Inflation has been largely contained, fiscal deficits have remained manageable, and financial markets have appeared relatively undisturbed. However, this apparent paradox – economic stability alongside democratic backsliding – is now under scrutiny.

Sheinbaum’s First Year and Economic Policies

Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the presidency on October 1, 2024, succeeding Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the founder of the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA). Sheinbaum is considered a close ally of her predecessor, and her administration has largely continued his policies. According to the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation, Sheinbaum’s approval ratings have remained consistently high, exceeding 70 percent as of December 2025.

Despite the high approval ratings, recent actions suggest a shift in the economic landscape. In January 2026, Sheinbaum announced a 13 percent increase in the minimum wage, benefiting over 8 million workers, coinciding with expectations of inflation falling below four percent for the first time in years. Simultaneously, she proposed a gradual reduction of the workweek from 48 to 40 hours. These measures, while popular with labor groups, have raised questions about their long-term economic impact.

Consolidation of Power and Institutional Changes

Sheinbaum has also focused on consolidating power through personnel changes within key institutions. A notable move was the forced resignation of 86-year-old Alejandro Gertz Manero, the federal attorney general, who was criticized for sluggishness, lack of transparency, and pursuing personal interests. Sheinbaum swiftly appointed Ernestina Godoy, a trusted confidante, as the new federal attorney general, paving the way for broader reforms within the country’s public prosecution offices.

a judicial reform passed in June stipulated the popular election of the country’s most important judges. While this reform faced some international criticism, it garnered less opposition within Mexico itself. These changes demonstrate Sheinbaum’s willingness to challenge established norms and exert greater control over the country’s institutions.

U.S.-Mexico Relations and Security Concerns

The shift in Mexico’s political and economic landscape is also impacting its relationship with the United States. According to a report by Brookings, Sheinbaum’s actions appear to be, in part, a response to pressure from Washington, aimed at preventing potential U.S. Military intervention in Mexico and countering claims that cartels effectively control parts of the country. This suggests a delicate balancing act for Sheinbaum, navigating domestic political priorities while addressing U.S. Security concerns.

The report also indicates that Sheinbaum is responding to Washington’s demands, potentially to avoid U.S. Military actions within Mexico and to refute assertions that criminal organizations are in control. This dynamic underscores the complex interplay between domestic policy and international relations in shaping Mexico’s current trajectory.

Legislative Setback and Emerging Challenges

The legislative setback in March, as highlighted by Guillermo Ortiz, is particularly significant. It represents a rare instance of resistance to Sheinbaum’s agenda and signals a potential weakening of support for her and López Obrador’s political project. This development raises concerns about the sustainability of Mexico’s economic stability in the face of increasing political challenges.

The unraveling of the narrative that Mexico could bend democratic rules without economic consequences could have far-reaching implications for investors, businesses, and the country’s overall economic outlook. The situation warrants close monitoring as Sheinbaum’s administration navigates these emerging challenges.

As of April 3, 2026, the long-term effects of these changes remain to be seen, but the early indicators suggest a more complex and uncertain future for Mexico’s economy and its democratic institutions.