Spring Training games are slated to start Friday, signaling the return of MLB’s biggest stars. But as the league prepares for another season, who will be each team’s most valuable player in 2026? Projections from FanGraphs Depth Charts, a combination of the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems, offer some insight.
Here’s a look at the top projected player for each club, measured by Wins Above Replacement (WAR).
Blue Jays: Alejandro Kirk and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (4.9 WAR) – The Blue Jays appear to have a tie at the top. Kirk’s value behind the plate is a key factor, exceeding Guerrero’s projection despite Guerrero’s high offensive ceiling. Kirk is projected for the second-highest WAR season among catchers, trailing only Cal Raleigh (6.4), while Guerrero is expected to split the difference between his last two seasons, hitting .295 with 34 home runs and 95 RBIs.
Orioles: Gunnar Henderson (6.0 WAR) – The Orioles are banking on a bounceback year for Henderson after a less impactful 2025 season following his MVP-caliber 2024. Despite playing through a shoulder injury last year, projections suggest he hasn’t reached his peak. FanGraphs forecasts 29 home runs and a .490 slugging percentage for Henderson in 2026. Other Orioles projected to contribute significantly include Adley Rutschman (4.0 WAR), Jordan Westburg (3.9), and Pete Alonso (3.6).
Rays: Junior Caminero (4.8 WAR) – Caminero’s potential is undeniable, having hit 45 home runs at age 21. FanGraphs is optimistic, projecting him among just five hitters to reach the 40-homer mark, alongside Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber, Aaron Judge, and Raleigh. His projected 4.8 WAR ties him with José Ramírez atop the leaderboard at third base. Shane McClanahan (3.0 WAR) is the only other Ray projected to exceed 3 WAR.
Red Sox: Garrett Crochet (5.8 WAR) – Crochet’s emergence as a dominant force is reflected in his projection. Following a 2025 season where he finished second in the AL and fourth in MLB with 5.8 WAR, a 2.59 ERA, and a league-leading 255 strikeouts, he’s expected to deliver similar results in 2026 – a slightly elevated ERA of 2.91 but still 5.8 WAR and approximately 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings. New additions Sonny Gray (3.7 WAR) and Ranger Suárez (3.4) trail Crochet, while Roman Anthony leads Boston’s position players with a projected 3.5 WAR.
Yankees: Aaron Judge (7.3 WAR) – Judge continues to defy expectations. Hitting .326 with a 1.152 OPS since the beginning of 2024, with 58 and 53 home runs in the last two seasons, he’s a force to be reckoned with. Projections suggest another MVP-worthy season with 43 home runs, and 7.8 WAR, but even that might underestimate his potential. Other key contributors for the Yankees include Max Fried (3.9 WAR), Cody Bellinger (3.3), Austin Wells (3.2), and Jazz Chisholm Jr. (3.1).
Royals: Bobby Witt Jr. (6.7 WAR) – Witt’s 8.0 WAR in 2025 was among the league’s best, trailing only Judge and Raleigh. Still just 25 years old, he’s expected to continue his strong performance. Cole Ragans (4.1 WAR) is the closest competitor within the Royals organization.
Tigers: Tarik Skubal (6.3 WAR) – Skubal is coming off back-to-back Cy Young seasons, posting a 2.21 ERA in 2025 with 241 strikeouts. He’s projected to remain a dominant force, leading a talented rotation that also features Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize, and offseason additions Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander.
Twins: Byron Buxton (3.6 WAR) – Buxton’s healthiest season since 2017, playing in 126 games, resulted in a .264/.327/.551 slash line, 35 home runs, and 5.0 WAR. If he can maintain that level of health and performance, he’s poised to be the best player on a young Minnesota squad.
White Sox: Colson Montgomery (2.5 WAR) – Montgomery impressed after his call-up, hitting 21 home runs in 71 games and displaying strong defensive skills. He’s projected to lead a young White Sox team that also features Chase Meidroth, Miguel Vargas, Kyle Teel, and Munetaka Murakami, all projected for around 2.1-2.2 WAR.
Angels: Zach Neto (4.3 WAR) – Neto has been the Angels’ top player for the past two seasons, leading the club in WAR. He’s projected to continue his upward trajectory, solidifying his position as a key player for the Angels.
Astros: Yordan Alvarez (4.4 WAR) – Alvarez’s 2025 season was hampered by injury, but his underlying quality of contact remains high. A full season of healthy at-bats could see him return to his elite form.
Athletics: Nick Kurtz (3.6 WAR) – Kurtz quickly made an impact after being drafted, winning the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2025. He’s projected to remain a key power threat for the A’s.
Mariners: Cal Raleigh (6.4 WAR) – Raleigh had a remarkable 2025 season, hitting 60 home runs and racking up 9.1 WAR. While repeating that performance might be challenging, he’s still projected to be a major contributor.
Rangers: Wyatt Langford (4.4 WAR) – Langford was the Rangers’ top player in 2025 and is projected to lead the club again in 2026, showcasing a blend of offense, baserunning, and defense.
Braves: Ronald Acuña Jr. (5.4 WAR) – Despite injury setbacks, Acuña remains a dynamic player. Projections suggest a return to form, with 31 home runs and 26 stolen bases, making him a key component of a potent Braves lineup that also includes Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, and Drake Baldwin.
Marlins: Xavier Edwards (2.8 WAR) – Edwards leads a group of six Marlins projected to exceed 2.0 WAR, but the team lacks a clear standout star.
Mets: Juan Soto (6.1 WAR) – Soto’s ability to steal bases emerged as a key part of his game in the second half of 2025. He’s projected to lead the Mets with 38 home runs and 23 stolen bases, with Francisco Lindor, Bo Bichette, and Marcus Semien also contributing significantly.
Nationals: James Wood (3.1 WAR) – Wood is projected to lead the Nationals for the second consecutive year, building on a solid rookie season in 2025.
Phillies: Cristopher Sánchez (4.8 WAR) – Sánchez’s stellar 2025 performance positions him as the ace of the Phillies rotation, especially with Zack Wheeler’s recovery from thoracic outlet syndrome potentially delaying his start to the season.
Brewers: William Contreras (4.5 WAR) – Contreras is expected to be a key contributor for the Brewers, despite undergoing surgery on a fractured finger in the offseason.
Cardinals: Masyn Winn (3.6 WAR) – Winn’s excellent defense at shortstop and improving offensive skills make him the top projected player on a Cardinals team undergoing a rebuild.
Cubs: Pete Crow-Armstrong (4.7 WAR) – Crow-Armstrong’s combination of power, speed, and defensive ability makes him a potential star for the Cubs.
Pirates: Paul Skenes (5.4 WAR) – Skenes’ dominant rookie season and Cy Young-winning 2025 have established him as the clear ace of the Pirates staff.
Reds: Elly De La Cruz (4.7 WAR) – Despite some regression in 2025, De La Cruz’s potential remains immense, and he’s projected to lead the Reds.
D-backs: Corbin Carroll (4.8 WAR) – Carroll’s all-around excellence makes him a cornerstone of the D-backs franchise, even as he recovers from a broken hamate bone.
Dodgers: Shohei Ohtani (8.4 WAR) – Ohtani’s two-way dominance is expected to continue, potentially leading to a fourth MVP award.
Giants: Patrick Bailey (4.6 WAR) – Bailey’s elite defense behind the plate is a key factor in his projection, despite a modest offensive output.
Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. (5.4 WAR) – Tatis’s versatility and all-around skills make him a valuable asset for the Padres.
Rockies: Ezequiel Tovar (3.0 WAR) – Tovar’s strong defense provides a solid foundation, but his offensive consistency remains a question mark.
