MLB Strikeout Props: Phillies vs. Padres Picks

The American League East division lead will be on the line when the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays square off on Wednesday at the Rogers Centre in Toronto. The Yankees (48-37) lead the Jays (47-38) by one game in the division. Wednesday’s game will be the third of a four-game series between the teams.

Will Warren (5-4, 4.37 ERA) is set to take the mound for New York while Toronto will give the ball to José Berríos (4-3, 3.26).

Sportsbooks have set Warren’s strikeouts prop at 4.5, while Berrios’ is 5.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Warren Over 4.5 strikeouts (-120) as a 5-star play on its 5-star scale. It is the model’s only 5-star pitcher strikeout prop for the day. Meanwhile Berrios Under 5.5 strikeouts (-125) is a 3-star play.

In addition to Warren Over 4.5, the model has found value elsewhere on Wednesday’s 18-game schedule. There are two pitcher strikeout player props the model has rated at 4.5 stars, including one that would pay plus-money. Here they are.

Ryan Pepiot Under 6.5 strikeouts (-140) vs. Athletics (12:10 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.3 strikeouts

The Rays righty (5-6, 3.36) has gone Under 6.5 strikeouts in nine of his 17 starts this season. He also is coming off his worst start of the year; four runs on five hits and two walks with just one strikeout in 1⅔ innings in a 22-8 loss to the Orioles. The last time he faced the Athletics in August, he struck out five in six innings. 

Mick Abel Over 3.5 strikeouts (+105) vs. Padres (1:05 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.6 strikeouts

A 23-year-old rookie righty for the Phillies, Abel (2-1, 3.47) has been solid so far in his first season. While he has gone Over 3.5 strikeouts in only one of his five starts this season, he has shown swing-and-miss stuff, with 512 strikeouts in 432 minor league innings. Prior to Tuesday’s postponed game, San Diego batters struck out 10 times against Philadelphia pitching in the Phillies’ 4-0 win Monday.

Will Warren Over 4.5 strikeouts (-120) vs. Blue Jays (7:07 p.m. ET)

Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 5.9 strikeouts

This is the model’s best pitcher strikeout prop for Wednesday. The 26-year-old Yankees righty has gone Over 4.5 strikeouts in 13 of 17 starts this season, including 11 of his last 13. Over bettors have cashed in each of his last three starts. Warren also ranks in the 89th percentile in the majors this season in strikeout percentage (29.6).